September 5, 2024
Top 10 Stock Carlsberg Hold Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Carlsberg – Top 10 Stock in OMX Copenhagen 20
Carlsberg is listed as a top 10 stock on September 05, 2024 in the market index OMX C20 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only one consolidated Obermatt Rank is above-average. The company is growing above average, but all other facts speak against a stock purchase, especially the low market sentiment by professional investors. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 30 (30% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall hold recommendation for Carlsberg on September 05, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | Denmark |
| Industry | Brewers |
| Index | OMX C20, Employee Focus EU, Energy Efficient, Human Rights |
| Size class | X-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Carlsberg Hold
| 360 METRICS | September 5, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 29 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 73 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 26 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 39 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 30 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 30 (better than 30% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Carlsberg are below the industry average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Carlsberg. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 73, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth, as well as stock returns. It ranks higher than 73% of competitors in the same industry. The other indicators are below average, namely the Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks.The Value Rank at 29 means that the share price of Carlsberg is on the high side compared with its peers regarding revenues, profits, and invested capital. The stock price is higher than for 71% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 26, which means that the company has a riskier financing structure than 74% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. The consolidated Sentiment Rank also has a low rank of 39, indicating professional investors are more pessimistic about the stock than for 61% of alternative investment opportunities. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 30, Carlsberg is worse than 70% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. As only one of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibits excellent performance, namely the above-average growth (Growth Rank of 73), it is a riskier stock investment proposition. Aside from the critical professional market sentiment (Sentiment Rank of 39), the company is rather risky when it comes to financing (Safety Rank of 26). The negative market view on Carlsberg may be due to the high stock price (low value). A growth company like this may get too expensive at one point in time. If too many investors are desperate to join the party, they may drive stock prices above reasonable levels. While it is typical for growth companies to have low value, because investors are willing to pay more for companies that are expected to have high growth, the crucial question is: how much more do you pay for the stock of Carlsberg compared with alternatives? You can use the following rule of thumb: The value rank shouldn’t be lower than one minus the growth rank. For example, if the growth rank is at 75, and the value rank is at 5, you should tread carefully. If the value rank is at 40, it still might be a good value (even though it is lower than 50). As market sentiment is critical, you should be careful with paying more than market-average for this stock and conduct further research into the company's future growth potential. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Carlsberg only reserved
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 39 (better than 39% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Carlsberg is below industry average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Carlsberg. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 80 (better than 80% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. Market Pulse is also positive with a rank of 61, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are positive when discussing this company (more positive news than for 61% of competitors). But Analyst Opinions Change is negative with a below 50 rank of 12, which means that stock research experts are changing their opinions for the worse in recommending the company. In other words, they are getting more critical of investments in Carlsberg. There are also only so many institutional investors holding company stock with a Professional Investors rank of 1, which means that, currently, professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 99% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 39 (less encouraging than 61% compared with investment alternatives), Carlsberg has a reputation among professional investors that is below that of its competitors. The signals are ambivalent. The positive news in the market contradicts the negative change in analyst recommendations. Since the overall analyst recommendations are still above average, the stock may be safer for investing, especially if it is not an extra-large company where Pros tend to be less present. In such a case, the Pro Investor rank is not a problem. ...read more
Value Strategy: Carlsberg Stock Price Value below-average critical
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 29 (worse than 71% compared with alternatives), Carlsberg shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Carlsberg. Only the metric dividend yield has an above-average rank, reflecting that dividend practices are expected to be higher than 73% of comparable companies, making the stock an attractive buy for dividend investors. However, dividend investors may get disappointed because all other critical financial indicators are below the market median: Price-to-Sales is 34 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 66% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Carlsberg's sales levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a rank of 27 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profit levels is higher than 73% of comparable companies. In addition, Price-to-Book (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 10 is also low. Compared with invested capital, the stock price is higher than for 90% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 29, is a hold recommendation based on Carlsberg's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Should dividend investors pick Carlsberg? The company-reported financials speak against it. The company is expensive compared with revenue and invested capital levels, two reliable company size indicators. In addition, it currently has a low level of profits. How can future dividends be paid in the case that profits remain low? Dividend investors should choose Carlsberg only if they reasonably expect the low current profit levels to be transitory. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Carlsberg Growth Momentum good
| GROWTH METRICS | September 5, 2024 | |||||||
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| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 98 |
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| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 16 |
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| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | 94 |
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| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 23 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 73 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 73 (better than 73% compared with alternatives), Carlsberg shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Carlsberg. Sales Growth has a rank of 98 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 98% of its competitors. Capital Growth is also above 16% of competitors with a rank of 94. But Profit Growth only has a rank of 16, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 84% of its competitors. And Stock Returns have also been below average with a rank of only 23. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 73, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Profits are sometimes low if the company invests in the future. The positive revenue and capital investment outlook confirms such an interpretation. Both revenues and capital are solid growth indicators, and lower profits in such a case would be encouraging. But the investors see it differently by punishing the share price. Sometimes, Mister Market is not very reliable, because it is not uncommon for it to be volatile. Investors should look out for signs of growth expenditure that could justify low profit growth, and they may also find reasons why recent stock price developments don't confirm the growth outlook of operations. While operating growth indicators are not perfect, they are more reliable indicators for future performance than stock prices that can repeatedly surprise investors. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Carlsberg Debt Financing Safety below-average
| SAFETY METRICS | September 5, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 9 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 12 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 81 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 26 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 26 (better than 26% compared with alternatives), the company Carlsberg has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Carlsberg is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Carlsberg. Liquidity is at 81, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 81% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is riskier at a rank of 12, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 88% of its competitors. Leverage is also high at a rank of 9, which means that the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 91% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 26 (worse than 74% compared with alternatives), Carlsberg has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. High Leverage (a low Obermatt Leverage Rank) is good in good times, because it usually indicates that shareholders get higher returns. The good Liquidity performance of the company is an indicator that this is the case. However, if you expect an economic downturn, you may stay clear of this stock because they have an above-average debt level that needs refinancing soon. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Carlsberg Below-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | September 5, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 29 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 73 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 81 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 34 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 34 (worse than 66% compared with investment alternatives), Carlsberg (Brewers, Denmark) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Carlsberg are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 29 (worse than 71% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 26, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 73). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 34, is a hold recommendation based on Carlsberg's financial characteristics. As the company Carlsberg shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 29 (71% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 73% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 73). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 26 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Carlsberg, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. ...read more
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