December 5, 2024
Top 10 Stock Casey's Buy Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Casey's – Top 10 Stock in SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
Casey's is listed as a top 10 stock on December 05, 2024 in the market index SDG 7 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Two consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average. While the company shows high growth, the stock price is high yet professional investor sentiment is low, which may be due to overly optimistic investor behavior, reflected in a low stock price value. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 64 (high 64% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall buy recommendation for Casey's on December 05, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | USA |
| Industry | Food Retail |
| Index | Employee Focus US, Diversity USA, SDG 11, SDG 2, SDG 4, SDG 7, SDG 8, NASDAQ, S&P US Food & Beverage, S&P MIDCAP |
| Size class | XX-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Casey's Buy
| 360 METRICS | December 5, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 17 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 79 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 94 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 37 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 64 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 64 (better than 64% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Casey's are above average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Casey's. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 79, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. This means that growth is higher than for 79% of competitors in the same industry. In addition, the consolidated Safety Rank has a safer rank of 94 which means that the company has a financing structure that is safer than 94% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. But the consolidated Value Rank has a less desirable rank of 17 which means that the share price of Casey's is on the higher side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means that the stock price is higher than for 83% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The consolidated Sentiment Rank also has a low rank of 37, which means that professional investors are more pessimistic about the stock than for 63% of alternative investment opportunities. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 64, Casey's is better positioned than 64% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. As only half of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, the picture is ambiguous. Growth is above-average (Growth Rank of 79), and the company is safely financed (Safety Rank of 94). However, professional market sentiment is low(Sentiment Rank of 37). The negative market view on Casey's may be due to the high stock price (low value). A growth company like this may get too expensive at one point in time. If too many investors are desperate to board the train, they may drive stock prices above reasonable levels. It is typical for growth companies to have low value ratings, because investors are willing to pay more for companies that outperform their competitors. So the question is, how much more do you pay for the stock of Casey's compared with alternatives? You can use the following rule of thumb: The value rank shouldn’t be lower than one hundred minus the growth rank. For example, if the growth rank is at 75, and the value rank is at 5, you should tread carefully. If the value rank is at 40, it still might be a good value if the value rank is above 60. As market sentiment is low, you should be careful with paying more than market-average for this stock and conduct further research into the company’s future growth potential. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Casey's only reserved
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 37 (better than 37% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Casey's is below industry average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for Casey's. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 78 (better than 78% of alternative investments), which means that, currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. This is a good sign, were it not for Analyst Opinions Change with a low rank of 40, which means that currently, stock research experts are changing their opinions for the worse. In other words, they are getting more critical of a stock investment in Casey's. The Professional Investors rank is also low at 29, meaning that professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 71% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. Even worse, Market Pulse has a low rank of 42, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are critical of this company (more negative news than for 58% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 37 (less encouraging than 63% compared with investment alternatives), Casey's has a reputation among professional investors that is below that of its competitors. There are several negative sentiment signals, with only the Analyst Opinions Rank above average. This could be a stock with a long reputation for being positive but where things are worsening. Most analysts may not see it yet, but some have, and the professionals are already quite pessimistic. Proceed with caution when investing in this stock. ...read more
Value Strategy: Casey's Stock Price Value low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 17 (worse than 83% compared with alternatives), Casey's shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Casey's. Price-to-Sales is 32 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 68% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Casey's's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 26, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Casey's. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 19 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 56% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 17, is a sell recommendation based on Casey's's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Casey's? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Casey's? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Casey's may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Casey's Growth Momentum high
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 79 (better than 79% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Casey's shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Casey's. Sales Growth has a rank of 83 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 83% of its competitors. Both Profit Growth, with a rank of 53, and Stock Returns, with a rank of 81, are also above average. But Capital Growth only has a rank of 34, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 66% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 79, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That may be a good sign if the company is already well positioned and doesn't require more investments at this time. They may focus on growing the top (revenues) and bottom (profits) lines, recently rewarded with above-average stock returns for shareholders. But it may also be a sign of danger as the company is falling back with capital investment activities concerning competition. This requires further analysis of corporate communications. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Casey's Debt Financing Safety very solid
| SAFETY METRICS | December 5, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 76 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 45 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 78 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 94 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 94 (better than 94% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company Casey's has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Casey's is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Casey's. Leverage is at a rank of 76, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 76% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 78, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 78% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 45, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 55% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 94 (better than 94% compared with alternatives), Casey's has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Casey's. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Casey's Top Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | December 5, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 17 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 79 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 78 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 79 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 79 (better than 79% compared with investment alternatives), Casey's (Food Retail, USA) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of Casey's are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 17 (worse than 83% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 79) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 94, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 79, is a strong buy recommendation based on Casey's's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Casey's exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 17), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 79). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 94) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). ...read more
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