November 7, 2024
Top 10 Stock Cosan Hold Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Cosan – Top 10 Stock in Bolsa de Valores-Mercadorias | BOVESPA
Cosan is listed as a top 10 stock on November 07, 2024 in the market index BOVESPA because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only the Obermatt Value Rank exhibits above-average performance, which means that the stock is seen as critical by the professional community and other financial facts are below average, conveying mixed investment signals. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 46 (46% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall hold recommendation for Cosan on November 07, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | Brazil |
| Industry | Oil & Gas Refining |
| Index | BOVESPA, Human Rights |
| Size class | X-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Cosan Hold
| 360 METRICS | November 7, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 93 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 7 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 48 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 49 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 46 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 46 (better than 46% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Cosan are below the industry average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Cosan. Only the consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 93, which means that the share price of Cosan is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means that the stock price is lower than for 93% of alternative stocks in the same industry. All other consolidated ranks are below average. The consolidated Growth Rank has a low rank of 7, which means that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. The consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 48, meaning the company has a riskier financing structure than 52% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. Finally, professionals are more pessimistic about the stock than for 51% of alternative investment opportunities, reflected in the consolidated Sentiment Rank of 49. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 46, Cosan is worse than 54% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. Only one of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibits above-average performance, namely the Value Rank at a level of 93. All other ranks are below average, so proceed with caution. The company has below-average growth expectations (Growth Rank of 7), a riskier financing structure than the competition (Safety Rank of 48), and the market sentiment in the professional investor community ranking at (Sentiment Rank of 49) is negative. This combination is sensitive to a crisis, because high debt levels (low safety) require growth to finance the debt burden. It’s no wonder that the investor community indicators are skeptical (low sentiment). Good value is sometimes an indication that the company's future is challenging. The below-par growth performance may be the reason for this assessment. We recommend evaluating whether the future of Cosan is as challenging as the low price of the stock suggests. Since the professional community is pessimistic, you might need to worry about the future of Cosan. Only invest if you have solid reasons to believe that the low growth is temporary and the current market sentiment is an overreaction, possibly due to reputational issues in the past. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Cosan only reserved
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 49 (better than 49% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Cosan is below industry average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half the indicators below and the other half above average for Cosan. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 49 (worse than 51% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. Worse, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 30, which means that stock research experts are getting more pessimistic. It doesn't end with the analysts. Market Pulse is also low with a rank of 26, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be negative when discussing this company (more negative news than for 74% of competitors). On the upside, the Professional Investors rank is 65, which means that professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 65% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to favor investing in this company. This could be due to a large company size, which could contribute to the higher share of professional investors in the company. If this is not the case, the low sentiment ranks are more challenging to explain. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 49 (less encouraging than 51% compared with investment alternatives), Cosan has a reputation among professional investors that is below that of its competitors. Should the company be on the smaller side, the presence of professional investors could be reassuring. That would make Cosan stock something like a hidden gem. Investors should make sure with further research that this is true, because all other sentiment indicators are negative which is a sign for caution. ...read more
Value Strategy: Cosan Stock Price Value at the top
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 93 (better than 93% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Cosan shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators that are all above average for Cosan. Price-to-Sales is 89 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 89% of comparable companies, indicating a good value for Cosan's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits, more favorable than for 89% of alternatives, and this is also true for the Price-to-Book capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 97. Compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields of Cosan are expected to be higher than for 72% of all competitors (a Dividend Yield rank of 72). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 93, is a buy recommendation based on Cosan's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since all value metrics are above the industry average, there is no objection to investing in Cosan based on its detailed value metrics.
Growth Strategy: Cosan Growth Momentum negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 7 (better than 7% compared with alternatives), Cosan shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four metrics below average for Cosan. Sales Growth has a rank of 16, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 84% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth, with a rank of 30, and Capital Growth with 32. In addition, Stock Returns have a below market rank of 11, which means that the stock returns have recently been below 89% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 7, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. These are all bad growth momentum indicators. These are negative signals for investors interested in growth companies. Value is likely good for this company, as investors may have left this stock in the cold. If that is the case, investors should look at the company's outlook, especially Sentiment performance, because it may be a turnaround situation that could entail above-average stock returns in the future. But it remains a risky bet, as no growth signals are in the green zone yet. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Cosan Debt Financing Safety below-average
| SAFETY METRICS | November 7, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 29 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 96 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 14 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 48 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 48 (better than 48% compared with alternatives), the company Cosan has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Cosan is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Cosan and the other two below average. Refinancing is at 96, meaning the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 96% of its competitors. But Leverage is high with a rank of 29, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 71% of its competitors. Liquidity is also on the riskier side with a rank of 14, meaning the company generates less profit to service its debt than 86% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 48 (worse than 52% compared with alternatives), Cosan has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. A good Refinancing Rank means that the problems of the company may not be around the corner. But high Leverage is only good if things go well, and low Liquidity is a signal for caution. The financing signals for Cosan are on the riskier side, requiring the company's future to be on the safer side. Investors may want to look at Growth and Sentiment ranks before making an investment decision. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Cosan Below-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | November 7, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 93 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 7 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 14 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 42 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 42 (worse than 58% compared with investment alternatives), Cosan (Oil & Gas Refining, Brazil) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Cosan are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 93 (better than 93% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 7), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 48), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 42, is a hold recommendation based on Cosan's financial characteristics. As the company Cosan's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 93) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 7) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 48), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 93% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. ...read more
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