Fact based stock research
CVR Energy (NYSE:CVI)
US12662P1084
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
CVR Energy stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 13 (worse than 87% compared with investment alternatives), CVR Energy (Oil & Gas Refining, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of CVR Energy are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 47 (worse than 53% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 1) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 65), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 13, is a sell recommendation based on CVR Energy's financial characteristics. As the company CVR Energy's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 47) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 1), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 65) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Oil & Gas Refining |
| Index | |
| Size class | X-Large |
14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.
Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: CVR Energy
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 10 |
|
37 |
|
52 |
|
47 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 49 |
|
5 |
|
25 |
|
1 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 3 |
|
19 |
|
56 |
|
65 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
47 |
|
31 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
9 |
|
21 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 13 (worse than 87% compared with investment alternatives), CVR Energy (Oil & Gas Refining, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of CVR Energy are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 47 (worse than 53% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 1) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 65), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 13, is a sell recommendation based on CVR Energy's financial characteristics. As the company CVR Energy's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 47) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 1), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 65) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 10 |
|
37 |
|
52 |
|
47 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 49 |
|
5 |
|
25 |
|
1 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 3 |
|
19 |
|
56 |
|
65 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 3 |
|
5 |
|
32 |
|
13 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 47 (worse than 53% compared with alternatives), CVR Energy shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half above average for CVR Energy. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 78, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 78% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning CVR Energy's revenue size. The same is valid for dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 100, which means that dividends are expected to be higher than for 100% of comparable investments. On the other hand, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is less favorable than for 77% of alternatives (only 23% of peers have an even higher ratio). The same is valid for the Price-to-Profit (or Price / Earnings, P/E) ratio, which is higher than for 97% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 47, is a hold recommendation based on CVR Energy's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a somewhat surprising picture, because it means that profits are low while dividends are high. One interpretation could be that profits are expected to increase, justifying the high dividend payments. But it could also mean that the company desperately keeps the high dividends to avoid a collapsing share price. This would be a rather dangerous constellation. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 98 |
|
83 |
|
73 |
|
78 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 10 |
|
15 |
|
41 |
|
3 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 14 |
|
25 |
|
8 |
|
23 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
71 |
|
79 |
|
100 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 10 |
|
37 |
|
52 |
|
47 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 1 (better than 1% compared with alternatives), CVR Energy shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four metrics below average for CVR Energy. Sales Growth has a rank of 14, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 86% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth, with a rank of 6, and Capital Growth with 31. In addition, Stock Returns have a below market rank of 5, which means that the stock returns have recently been below 95% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 1, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. These are all bad growth momentum indicators. These are negative signals for investors interested in growth companies. Value is likely good for this company, as investors may have left this stock in the cold. If that is the case, investors should look at the company's outlook, especially Sentiment performance, because it may be a turnaround situation that could entail above-average stock returns in the future. But it remains a risky bet, as no growth signals are in the green zone yet. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 71 |
|
24 |
|
1 |
|
14 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 59 |
|
26 |
|
63 |
|
6 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
19 |
|
43 |
|
31 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 62 |
|
41 |
|
61 |
|
5 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 49 |
|
5 |
|
25 |
|
1 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 65 (better than 65% compared with alternatives), the company CVR Energy has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of CVR Energy is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above-average for CVR Energy. Refinancing is at 83, meaning the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 83% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at 82, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 82% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. However, Leverage is rather large at 18, which means the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 82% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 65 (better than 65% compared with alternatives), CVR Energy has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. This is not bad if things go well. The higher debt level means better returns to shareholders if things go well. Many top-performing companies operate with higher debt levels, and CVR Energy could be in that group. But if you expect the environment to turn rougher, the higher leverage could become a problem. The same is valid if you expect interest rates to rise. That could squeeze shareholder returns, which so far have benefitted from better conditions. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with CVR Energy and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 32 |
|
32 |
|
20 |
|
18 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 4 |
|
77 |
|
81 |
|
83 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 10 |
|
19 |
|
59 |
|
82 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 3 |
|
19 |
|
56 |
|
65 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
16 |
|
1 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
72 |
|
6 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
41 |
|
82 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
48 |
|
70 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
47 |
|
31 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for CVR Energy from November 14, 2024.
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