July 18, 2024
Top 10 Stock Gudang Garam Buy Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Gudang Garam – Top 10 Stock in Independent Boards in Growth Markets
Gudang Garam is listed as a top 10 stock on July 18, 2024 in the market index Independent Boards Growth Markets because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. While half the consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average, investor sentiment is negative and growth performance is below market average, both a sign for caution. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 65 (high 65% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall buy recommendation for Gudang Garam on July 18, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | Indonesia |
| Industry | Tobacco |
| Index | Independent Boards Growth Markets, IDX Composite |
| Size class | X-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Gudang Garam Buy
| 360 METRICS | July 18, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 100 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 5 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 96 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 11 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 65 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 65 (better than 65% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Gudang Garam are above average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half the metrics below and half above average for Gudang Garam. The consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 100, which means that the share price of Gudang Garam is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means the stock price is lower than for 100% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The company is also safely financed with a Safety rank of 96. But the professional market sentiment is below average compared with other stock investment alternatives with a Sentiment Rank of 11. Professional investors are more confident in 89% other stocks. The consolidated Growth Rank also has a low rank of 5, which means that the company is below average in terms of growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, invested capital growth, and stock returns. 95 of its competitors have better growth. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 65, Gudang Garam is better positioned than 65% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. The picture is mixed here. The stock seems to be a good value (Value Rank of 100), and the financing structure is on the safer side (Safety Rank of 96). However, sentiment in the professional investor community is below-average (Sentiment Rank of 11), as is the growth momentum for the company (Growth Rank of 5). Since the company is good value and the share price low, it should attract investors, yet professionals are skeptical. Even though the financing structure is not as important as Value, Growth, and Sentiment, investors should still be careful with this decision and conduct further research if they are serious about investing in this company. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Gudang Garam negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 11 (better than 11% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Gudang Garam is critical, mostly below average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the indicators below and above average for Gudang Garam. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 3 (worse than 97% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. But they are changing their opinions! Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 50 which means that stock research experts are changing their opinions for the better. In other words, they are getting more optimistic of stock investments in Gudang Garam. Market Pulse is also positive with a rank of 60, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are positive in their discussions about this company (more positive news than for 60% of competitors). Only professional investors tend to be absent with a Professional Investors rank of 4, which means that professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 96% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. But that could also be due to the size of the company. Professional investors tend to invest in XL and XXL companies. If the company is smaller than that, that fact alone may explain why there are fewer pros present. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 11 (less encouraging than 89% compared with investment alternatives), Gudang Garam has a reputation among professional investors that is far below that of its competitors. Since analysts are getting more optimistic and the professional communication channels are positive, it may be an indication of a company that has the difficult times behind it or the stocks’ value is improving. For medium to smaller companies, the positive sentiment indicators outshine the negative. ...read more
Value Strategy: Gudang Garam Stock Price Value at the top
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 100 (better than 100% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Gudang Garam shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators that are all above average for Gudang Garam. Price-to-Sales is 91 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 91% of comparable companies, indicating a good value for Gudang Garam's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits, more favorable than for 93% of alternatives, and this is also true for the Price-to-Book capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 95. Compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields of Gudang Garam are expected to be higher than for 100% of all competitors (a Dividend Yield rank of 100). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 100, is a buy recommendation based on Gudang Garam's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since all value metrics are above the industry average, there is no objection to investing in Gudang Garam based on its detailed value metrics.
Growth Strategy: Gudang Garam Growth Momentum negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 5 (better than 5% compared with alternatives), Gudang Garam shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Gudang Garam. Only Capital Growth has a good rank of 50, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 6% of its competitors. The other three indicators are pointing South: Sales Growth has a rank of 46 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 54% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 6 and Stock Returns with a rank of 1 are also low (below 99% of alternative investments). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 5, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The good news from the invested capital side is surprising. A company with disappointing revenues, profits, and disappointed shareholders typically doesn't invest above average. Overall, the growth momentum for Gudang Garam is thus negative. As it is intriguing to see that company executives are optimistic about their investment policy, it is worthwhile looking into the details of the capital investment projects. They may indicate future growth and profits and thus if accompanied by a good value, a sign of good timing to invest in the stock. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Gudang Garam Debt Financing Safety very solid
| SAFETY METRICS | July 18, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 74 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 95 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 71 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 96 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 96 (better than 96% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company Gudang Garam has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Gudang Garam is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, where all three are above average for Gudang Garam. Leverage is at 74, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 74% of its competitors. Refinancing is at a rank of 95, meaning that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 95% of its competitors. Finally, Liquidity is also good at a rank of 71, which means that the company generates more profit to service its debt than 71% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 96 (better than 96% compared with alternatives), Gudang Garam has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. These three positive financing indicators signal that the company is less likely to default on its debt obligations. However, it also means that its shareholder returns will be more modest if things go well. A low safety means fewer troubles in downtimes and less upside in good times. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Gudang Garam Top Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | July 18, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 100 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 5 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 71 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 82 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 82 (better than 82% compared with investment alternatives), Gudang Garam (Tobacco, Indonesia) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of Gudang Garam are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 100 (better than 100% of alternatives), are safely financed (Safety Rank of 96, which means low debt burdens), but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 5). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 82, is a strong buy recommendation based on Gudang Garam's financial characteristics. As the company Gudang Garam's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 100) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 5) while being safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 96), it may be a safer investment because companies with low debt can better withstand times of crises. Yet the good value, better than 100% of comparable companies, may also indicate that the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity and the downside is limited due to below-average financing risks. ...read more
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