April 11, 2024
Top 10 Stock Harmony Strong Buy Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Harmony – Top 10 Stock in Johannesburg Securities Exchange All Shares Index JSE All Shares
Harmony is listed as a top 10 stock on April 11, 2024 in the market index JSE All Shares because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Two consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average. The company is growing above average and professional investor sentiment is positive. Both are encouraging signals for a stock purchase decision, albeit at an above-average share price. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 90 (top 90% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall strong buy recommendation for Harmony on April 11, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | South Africa |
| Industry | Gold Production |
| Index | Copper, Energy Efficient, Human Rights, Gold, Silver, Uranium, Water Efficiency, JSE All Shares |
| Size class | Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Harmony Strong Buy
| 360 METRICS | April 11, 2024 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 40 |
|
||||||
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 90 |
|
||||||
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 49 |
|
||||||
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 94 |
|
||||||
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 90 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 90 (better than 90% compared with alternatives) for 2024, overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Harmony are very positive. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Harmony. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 90, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. This means that growth is higher than for 90% of competitors in the same industry. The consolidated Sentiment Rank also has a good rank of 94, which means that professional investors are more optimistic about the stock than for 94% of alternative investment opportunities. But the consolidated Value Rank has a less desirable rank of 40, which means that the share price of Harmony is on the higher side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means the stock price is higher than for 60% of alternative stocks in the same industry. Finally, the consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 49, which means that the company has a financing structure that is riskier than those of 51% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 90, Harmony is better positioned than 90% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. Only half of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, so one needs to take a close look. Growth is above-average (Growth Rank of 90), and professional market sentiment is positive (Sentiment Rank of 94), but value and safety are below average. The Safety Rank is the least significant of the four consolidated ranks, because it only reflects financing practices. In the case of high growth, aggressive financing is a good thing. So the question is: How to assess below-average value against above-average growth and sentiment? Growth may be the strongest driver of the investment rationale in this case, which is reflected in institutional investors' opinions. It is typical for growth companies to have low value, as is the case here. Investors are willing to pay more for companies that outperform their competitors. So the question is, how much do you sacrifice value for growth? You can use the following rule of thumb: If you take 100 minus the growth rank, you arrive at a possibly minimum level for the value rank. For example, if the growth rank is at 75, and the value rank is at 5, you should tread carefully. If the value rank is at 40, it still might be a good value if the growth rank is above 60. Sometimes market sentiment just extrapolates the past, but sometimes it reflects reality. You pay more than the market average for this stock, but it may be worth it. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Harmony very positive
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 94 (better than 94% compared with alternatives) for 2024, overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Harmony is very positive. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Harmony. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 3 (worse than 97% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. But they are changing their opinions! Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 93, which indicates a shift in stock research experts opinions for the better. In other words, they are getting more optimistic about stock investments in Harmony. Even better, the Professional Investors rank is 100, meaning that professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 100% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to favor investing in this company. Furthermore, Market Pulse has a rank of 91, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are upbeat when discussing this company (more positive news than for 91% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 94 (more positive than 94% compared with investment alternatives), Harmony has a reputation among professional investors that is significantly higher than that of its competitors. While analysts are still critical of the company, some are changing their minds. In addition, the professional news channels are optimistic, and many institutional investors have already bought stock in the company. These are encouraging signals, despite the still lower level of analyst recommendations. They may be due to a problematic past, and about to change. The positive sentiment signals are stronger than the negative. ...read more
Value Strategy: Harmony Stock Price Value below-average critical
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 40 (worse than 60% compared with alternatives), Harmony shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half are above average for Harmony. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 52, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 52% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Harmony's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 64% of alternatives. It is also positive for expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 42 (dividends are expected to be higher than for 42% of other stocks). But, compared with other companies in the same industry, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is higher than average, making the stock more expensive. Only 54% of all competitors have an even higher price compared with book capital which puts the Price-to-Capital Rank for Harmony to 46. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 40, is a hold recommendation based on Harmony's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. A low level of book capital means that the company has a business that is leaner on assets than its competitors. For instance, the company could be leasing its production facilities, or be more focussed on intellectual property, such as its brand and software, which is less visible in its book capital. If that is the case, the low Dividend Yield is also explained as such companies tend to invest their income into market development. The other good value ranks for Sales and Profits are encouraging indicators for the stock price value. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Harmony Growth Momentum high
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 90 (better than 90% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Harmony shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators above average for Harmony. Sales Growth has a value of 57, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 57% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth with a value of 77 and for Capital Growth with 50. In addition, Stock Returns had an above-average rank value of 93, which means they have been higher than 93% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 90, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Since all Growth Ranks are positive, Harmony exhibits above-average growth momentum. This could be due to a uniquely strong market position, proprietary technology, or an extensive corporate acquisition strategy. Growth investors will find this an attractive investment opportunity, unless they expect that the current phase is transitory and will deteriorate in the future. The current performance could also be a temporary recovery from a very low point, such as a turn-around situation. In the case of a turn-around, the current performance may or may not be followed by a continuing positive development. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Harmony Debt Financing Safety below-average
| SAFETY METRICS | April 11, 2024 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 64 |
|
||||||
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 25 |
|
||||||
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 60 |
|
||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 49 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 49 (better than 49% compared with alternatives), the company Harmony has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Harmony is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Harmony. Leverage is at a rank of 64, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 64% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 60, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 60% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 25, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 75% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 49 (worse than 51% compared with alternatives), Harmony has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Harmony. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Harmony Top Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | April 11, 2024 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 40 |
|
||||||
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 90 |
|
||||||
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 60 |
|
||||||
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 80 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 80 (better than 80% compared with investment alternatives), Harmony (Gold Production, South Africa) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of Harmony are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 40 (worse than 60% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 49, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 90). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 80, is a strong buy recommendation based on Harmony's financial characteristics. As the company Harmony shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 40 (60% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 90% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 90). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 49 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Harmony, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. ...read more
Obermatt Portfolio Performance
We’re so convinced about our research, that we buy our stock tips.
See the performance of the Obermatt portfolio.