Fact based stock research
Heineken (ENXTAM:HEIO)
NL0000008977
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Heineken stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 29 (worse than 71% compared with investment alternatives), Heineken (Brewers, Netherlands) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Heineken are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 63 (better than 63% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 39), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 21), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 29, is a hold recommendation based on Heineken's financial characteristics. As the company Heineken's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 63) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 39) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 21), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 63% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | Netherlands |
| Industry | Brewers |
| Index | Diversity Europe, Human Rights, Sound Pay Europe |
| Size class | XX-Large |
14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Heineken
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 43 |
|
41 |
|
47 |
|
63 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 39 |
|
87 |
|
87 |
|
39 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 1 |
|
3 |
|
17 |
|
21 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
73 |
|
32 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
51 |
|
34 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 29 (worse than 71% compared with investment alternatives), Heineken (Brewers, Netherlands) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Heineken are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 63 (better than 63% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 39), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 21), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 29, is a hold recommendation based on Heineken's financial characteristics. As the company Heineken's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 63) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 39) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 21), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 63% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 43 |
|
41 |
|
47 |
|
63 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 39 |
|
87 |
|
87 |
|
39 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 1 |
|
3 |
|
17 |
|
21 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 3 |
|
21 |
|
47 |
|
29 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 63 (better than 63% compared with alternatives), Heineken shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for Heineken. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 66, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 66% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Heineken's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 58% of alternatives. It is also positive for expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 55 (dividends are expected to be higher than 55% of other stocks). But, compared with other companies in the same industry, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is higher than average, making the stock more expensive. Only 52% of all competitors have an even higher price compared with book capital which puts the Price-to-Capital Rank for Heineken to 48. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 63, is a buy recommendation based on Heineken's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. A low level of book capital means that the company has a business that is leaner in assets than its competitors. For instance, the company could be leasing its production facilities or be more focussed on intellectual property, such as its brand and software, which is less visible in its book capital. If that is the case, the three good value ranks for Sales, Profits, and Dividends are reliable indicators for the stock price value. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 84 |
|
58 |
|
62 |
|
66 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 50 |
|
33 |
|
44 |
|
58 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 48 |
|
31 |
|
40 |
|
48 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 46 |
|
43 |
|
38 |
|
55 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 43 |
|
41 |
|
47 |
|
63 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 39 (better than 39% compared with alternatives), Heineken shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Heineken. Sales Growth has a rank of 59 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 59% of its competitors. Capital Growth is also above 37% of competitors with a rank of 58. But Profit Growth only has a rank of 37, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 63% of its competitors. And Stock Returns have also been below average with a rank of only 23. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 39, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Profits are sometimes low if the company invests in the future. The positive revenue and capital investment outlook confirms such an interpretation. Both revenues and capital are solid growth indicators, and lower profits in such a case would be encouraging. But the investors see it differently by punishing the share price. Sometimes, Mister Market is not very reliable, because it is not uncommon for it to be volatile. Investors should look out for signs of growth expenditure that could justify low profit growth, and they may also find reasons why recent stock price developments don't confirm the growth outlook of operations. While operating growth indicators are not perfect, they are more reliable indicators for future performance than stock prices that can repeatedly surprise investors. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 33 |
|
85 |
|
89 |
|
59 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | n/a |
|
76 |
|
29 |
|
37 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
81 |
|
67 |
|
58 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 36 |
|
45 |
|
65 |
|
23 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 39 |
|
87 |
|
87 |
|
39 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 21 (better than 21% compared with alternatives), the company Heineken has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Heineken is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Heineken. Liquidity is at 51, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 51% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is riskier at a rank of 9, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 91% of its competitors. Leverage is also high at a rank of 35, which means that the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 65% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 21 (worse than 79% compared with alternatives), Heineken has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. High Leverage (a low Obermatt Leverage Rank) is good in good times, because it usually indicates that shareholders get higher returns. The good Liquidity performance of the company is an indicator that this is the case. However, if you expect an economic downturn, you may stay clear of this stock because they have an above-average debt level that needs refinancing soon. If the company is sailing with good winds, as may be visible from the Growth and Sentiment performance, the refinancing risk may be lower than the low Refinancing rank suggests. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 10 |
|
18 |
|
32 |
|
35 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 8 |
|
7 |
|
5 |
|
9 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 50 |
|
15 |
|
45 |
|
51 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 1 |
|
3 |
|
17 |
|
21 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
74 |
|
47 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
92 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
12 |
|
51 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
46 |
|
21 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
73 |
|
32 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Heineken from November 14, 2024.
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