July 25, 2024
Top 10 Stock Hilltop Sell Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Hilltop – Top 10 Stock in Dow Jones U.S. Regional Banks Index
Hilltop is listed as a top 10 stock on July 25, 2024 in the market index D.J. US Banks because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only one consolidated Obermatt Rank is above-average. The company is safely financed, but all other facts speak against a stock purchase, especially the low market sentiment by professional investors. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 8 (8% performer), Obermatt issues an overall sell recommendation for Hilltop on July 25, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | USA |
| Industry | Regional Banks |
| Index | D.J. US Banks |
| Size class | XX-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Hilltop Sell
| 360 METRICS | July 25, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 8 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 8 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 99 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 1 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 8 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 8 (better than 8% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Hilltop are critical, mostly below average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for Hilltop. The only rank that is above average is the consolidated Safety Rank at 99, which means that the company has a financing structure that is safer than those of 99% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. But the Value, Growth and Sentiment Ranks are all below average. The consolidated Value Rank has a less desirable rank of 8, which means that the share price of Hilltop is on the high side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. The consolidated Growth Rank also has a low rank of 8, which implies that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. Finally, the consolidated Sentiment Rank is also low at a rank of 1, which means that professional investors are more pessimistic about the stock than for 99% of alternative investment opportunities. While Safety is strong, it’s not the most critical indicator, so we suggest proceeding with caution if you are considering this stock. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 8, Hilltop is worse than 92% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. This means that Hilltop shares are on the riskier side for investors. As only the financing structure, namely the Safety Rank, is on the safer side and all other consolidated Obermatt Ranks are below-average, this is a riskier stock investment proposition. This is especially the case, since professional investor sentiment, the consolidated Obermatt Sentiment Rank, is also low at 1. The negative market view on Hilltop may be the high stock price (low value) or the low level of growth. This is a problem. As the Safety Rank is the least significant of the four consolidated Obermatt Ranks, we cannot identify enough positive facts that are visible today to make a case for this stock investment. The company may have a strong future which would justify the high stock price, but this is not visible from investor behavior today. As market sentiment is critical, you should be careful with paying more than market-average for this stock, and conduct further research into the company's future growth potential. Prudent investors may only want to invest a smaller portion of their wealth in such situations. Young investors can carry more risk but should still thrive for sufficient diversification. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Hilltop negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 1 (better than 1% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Hilltop is critical, mostly below average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Hilltop. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 22 (worse than 78% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. Worse, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 8 which means that stock research experts are getting even more pessimistic. It doesn't end with the analysts. Market Pulse is also low with a rank of 17, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are on the negative side when discussing this company (more negative news than for 83% of competitors). No wonder, the Professional Investors rank is only 20, which means that professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 80% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to stay away from Hilltop, which may be due to a small company size but just as likely because of its relatively low Sentiment Rank. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 1 (less encouraging than 99% compared with investment alternatives), Hilltop has a reputation among professional investors that is far below that of its competitors. Investors should be careful with this stock right now. Further research is required if an investment is desired, because the facts found in the professional community are all negative. ...read more
Value Strategy: Hilltop Stock Price Value low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 8 (worse than 92% compared with alternatives), Hilltop shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators where three out of four are below average for Hilltop. Only the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) indicates good stock value with a Price-to-Book Rank of 51, which means that the stock price is lower compared with invested capital than for 51% of comparable investments. All other value indicators are below the market median. Price-to-Sales is 3 which means the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 97% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Hilltop's revenue levels. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 51 and for the dividend yields rank which is lower than for 83% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 8, is a sell recommendation based on Hilltop's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Why are market participants paying such a high price for Hilltop, where three out of four value indicators are below par? One reason could be that the company is well financed, indicated by the high book capital level, and has a promising future that is not yet visible in reported revenues and profits. That would also explain the low dividend yield because the company needs the cash to invest in its future. If investors can verify a picture in this sense, the stock may still be a good investment, even though current company-reported financials don't fully explain current stock prices. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Hilltop Growth Momentum negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 8 (better than 8% compared with alternatives), Hilltop shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four metrics below average for Hilltop. Sales Growth has a rank of 12, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 88% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth, with a rank of 39, and Capital Growth with 13. In addition, Stock Returns have a below market rank of 37, which means that the stock returns have recently been below 63% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 8, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. These are all bad growth momentum indicators. These are negative signals for investors interested in growth companies. Value is likely good for this company, as investors may have left this stock in the cold. If that is the case, investors should look at the company's outlook, especially Sentiment performance, because it may be a turnaround situation that could entail above-average stock returns in the future. But it remains a risky bet, as no growth signals are in the green zone yet. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Hilltop Debt Financing Safety very solid
| SAFETY METRICS | July 25, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 90 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 82 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 100 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 99 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 99 (better than 99% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company Hilltop has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Hilltop is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, where all three are above average for Hilltop. Leverage is at 90, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 90% of its competitors. Refinancing is at a rank of 82, meaning that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 82% of its competitors. Finally, Liquidity is also good at a rank of 100, which means that the company generates more profit to service its debt than 100% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 99 (better than 99% compared with alternatives), Hilltop has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. These three positive financing indicators signal that the company is less likely to default on its debt obligations. However, it also means that its shareholder returns will be more modest if things go well. A low safety means fewer troubles in downtimes and less upside in good times. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Hilltop Lowest Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | July 25, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 8 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 8 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 100 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 18 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 18 (worse than 82% compared with investment alternatives), Hilltop (Regional Banks, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Hilltop are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 8 (worse than 92% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 8) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 99), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 18, is a sell recommendation based on Hilltop's financial characteristics. As the company Hilltop's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 8) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 8), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 99) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. ...read more
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