September 12, 2024
Top 10 Stock Japan Tobacco Hold Recommendation

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For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).

360° View: Obermatt 360° View Japan Tobacco Hold

360 METRICS	September 12, 2024
VALUE
VALUE	49
GROWTH
GROWTH	49
SAFETY
SAFETY	55
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	40
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	42

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 42 (better than 42% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Japan Tobacco are below the industry average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for Japan Tobacco. The only rank that is above average is the consolidated Safety Rank at 55, which means that the company has a financing structure that is safer than those of 55% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. But the Value, Growth and Sentiment Ranks are all below average. The consolidated Value Rank has a less desirable rank of 49, which means that the share price of Japan Tobacco is on the high side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. The consolidated Growth Rank also has a low rank of 49, which implies that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. Finally, the consolidated Sentiment Rank is also low at a rank of 40, which means that professional investors are more pessimistic about the stock than for 60% of alternative investment opportunities. While Safety is strong, it’s not the most critical indicator, so we suggest proceeding with caution if you are considering this stock. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 42, Japan Tobacco is worse than 58% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. As only the financing structure, namely the Safety Rank, is on the safer side and all other consolidated Obermatt Ranks are below-average, this is a riskier stock investment proposition. This is especially the case, since professional investor sentiment, the consolidated Obermatt Sentiment Rank, is also low at 40. The negative market view on Japan Tobacco may be the high stock price (low value) or the low level of growth. This is a problem. As the Safety Rank is the least significant of the four consolidated Obermatt Ranks, we cannot identify enough positive facts that are visible today to make a case for this stock investment. The company may have a strong future which would justify the high stock price, but this is not visible from investor behavior today. As market sentiment is critical, you should be careful with paying more than market-average for this stock, and conduct further research into the company's future growth potential. Prudent investors may only want to invest a smaller portion of their wealth in such situations. Young investors can carry more risk but should still thrive for sufficient diversification. ...read more

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Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Japan Tobacco only reserved

SENTIMENT METRICS	September 12, 2024
ANALYST OPINION
ANALYST OPINION	34
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	20
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	100
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	26
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	40

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 40 (better than 40% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Japan Tobacco is below industry average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half the indicators below and the other half above average for Japan Tobacco. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 34 (worse than 66% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. Worse, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 20, which means that stock research experts are getting more pessimistic. It doesn't end with the analysts. Market Pulse is also low with a rank of 26, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be negative when discussing this company (more negative news than for 74% of competitors). On the upside, the Professional Investors rank is 100, which means that professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 100% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to favor investing in this company. This could be due to a large company size, which could contribute to the higher share of professional investors in the company. If this is not the case, the low sentiment ranks are more challenging to explain. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 40 (less encouraging than 60% compared with investment alternatives), Japan Tobacco has a reputation among professional investors that is below that of its competitors. Should the company be on the smaller side, the presence of professional investors could be reassuring. That would make Japan Tobacco stock something like a hidden gem. Investors should make sure with further research that this is true, because all other sentiment indicators are negative which is a sign for caution. ...read more

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Value Strategy: Japan Tobacco Stock Price Value below-average critical

VALUE METRICS	September 12, 2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	5
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	56
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	28
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	94
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	49

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 49 (worse than 51% compared with alternatives), Japan Tobacco shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Japan Tobacco. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 56 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 56% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Japan Tobacco's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 28, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 28% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than 95% of alternatives (only 5% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than 6% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 49, is a hold recommendation based on Japan Tobacco's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high in respect to expected revenues, it means that the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than pay it out to shareholders, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. ...read more

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Growth Strategy: Japan Tobacco Growth Momentum low

GROWTH METRICS	September 12, 2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	47
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	30
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	37
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	93
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	49

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 49 (better than 49% compared with alternatives), Japan Tobacco shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Japan Tobacco. Sales Growth has a below market rank of 47, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 53% of its competitors. The same is valid for Capital Growth, with a rank of 37, and Profit Growth, with a rank of 30. Currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 70% of its competitors). Only shareholders are optimistic. Stock Returns are above average at a rank of 93, which means that the stock returns have recently been above 93% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 49, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That picture may be the result for a company that has reached the bottom. All went south for Japan Tobacco, and it still looks bad, but some investors already see light at the end of the tunnel, rewarding the stock with recent above-market stock returns. It could also mean that investors are correcting an overreaction to negative news. If that were the case, the positive stock returns are not yet a sign of recovery. Investors should look closely at the Value and Sentiment indicators before they make a stock purchasing decision, because growth is unlikely to be the driving argument behind this investment. ...read more

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Safety Strategy: Japan Tobacco Debt Financing Safety above-average

SAFETY METRICS	September 12, 2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	56
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	39
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	55
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	55

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 55 (better than 55% compared with alternatives), the company Japan Tobacco has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Japan Tobacco is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Japan Tobacco. Leverage is at a rank of 56, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 56% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 55, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 55% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 39, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 61% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 55 (better than 55% compared with alternatives), Japan Tobacco has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Japan Tobacco. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. ...read more

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Combined financial peformance: Japan Tobacco Below-Average Financial Performance

COMBINED PERFORMANCE	September 12, 2024
VALUE
VALUE	49
GROWTH
GROWTH	49
SAFETY
SAFETY	55
COMBINED
COMBINED	47

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 47 (worse than 53% compared with investment alternatives), Japan Tobacco (Tobacco, Japan) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Japan Tobacco are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 49 (worse than 51% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 49) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 55), which means low debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 47, is a hold recommendation based on Japan Tobacco's financial characteristics. As the company Japan Tobacco's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 49) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 49), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 55) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. ...read more

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