April 18, 2024
Top 10 Stock KGHM Polska Sell Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: KGHM Polska – Top 10 Stock in Warszawski Warsaw Indeks Giełdowy WIG 20
KGHM Polska is listed as a top 10 stock on April 18, 2024 in the market index WIG 20 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Two consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average. While the company shows high growth, the stock price is high yet professional investor sentiment is low, which may be due to overly optimistic investor behavior, reflected in a low stock price value. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 18 (18% performer), Obermatt issues an overall sell recommendation for KGHM Polska on April 18, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | Poland |
| Industry | Copper |
| Index | Low Emissions, Copper, Energy Efficient, Iron, Lithium, Rare Earth, Uranium, WIG 20 |
| Size class | X-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View KGHM Polska Sell
| 360 METRICS | April 18, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 8 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 58 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 71 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 28 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 18 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 18 (better than 18% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock KGHM Polska are critical, mostly below average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for KGHM Polska. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 58, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. This means that growth is higher than for 58% of competitors in the same industry. In addition, the consolidated Safety Rank has a safer rank of 71 which means that the company has a financing structure that is safer than 71% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. But the consolidated Value Rank has a less desirable rank of 8 which means that the share price of KGHM Polska is on the higher side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means that the stock price is higher than for 92% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The consolidated Sentiment Rank also has a low rank of 28, which means that professional investors are more pessimistic about the stock than for 72% of alternative investment opportunities. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 18, KGHM Polska is worse than 82% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. This means that KGHM Polska shares are on the riskier side for investors. As only half of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, the picture is ambiguous. Growth is above-average (Growth Rank of 58), and the company is safely financed (Safety Rank of 71). However, professional market sentiment is low(Sentiment Rank of 28). The negative market view on KGHM Polska may be due to the high stock price (low value). A growth company like this may get too expensive at one point in time. If too many investors are desperate to board the train, they may drive stock prices above reasonable levels. It is typical for growth companies to have low value ratings, because investors are willing to pay more for companies that outperform their competitors. So the question is, how much more do you pay for the stock of KGHM Polska compared with alternatives? You can use the following rule of thumb: The value rank shouldn’t be lower than one hundred minus the growth rank. For example, if the growth rank is at 75, and the value rank is at 5, you should tread carefully. If the value rank is at 40, it still might be a good value if the value rank is above 60. As market sentiment is low, you should be careful with paying more than market-average for this stock and conduct further research into the company’s future growth potential. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for KGHM Polska only reserved
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 28 (better than 28% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock KGHM Polska is below industry average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half the indicators below and half above average for KGHM Polska. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 1 (worse than 99% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. Worse, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 34, which means that stock research experts are getting even more pessimistic. In addition, the Professional Investors rank is 38, which means that professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 62% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. The only positive sentiment indicator for KGHM Polska is Market Pulse, with a rank of 100, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be positive when discussing this company (more positive news than for 100% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 28 (less encouraging than 72% compared with investment alternatives), KGHM Polska has a reputation among professional investors that is below that of its competitors. This is an ambiguous picture: analysts are negative and getting even more critical while the news in the market is positive. Who should investors believe? This is a difficult question in such a situation. Investors should proceed cautiously and verify not only the financial performance in the Obermatt Value, Growth and Safety Ranks but also independent news coverage of the company. ...read more
Value Strategy: KGHM Polska Stock Price Value low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 8 (worse than 92% compared with alternatives), KGHM Polska shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators where three out of four are below average for KGHM Polska. Only the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) indicates good stock value with a Price-to-Book Rank of 67, which means that the stock price is lower compared with invested capital than for 67% of comparable investments. All other value indicators are below the market median. Price-to-Sales is 27 which means the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 73% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning KGHM Polska's revenue levels. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 67 and for the dividend yields rank which is lower than for 80% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 8, is a sell recommendation based on KGHM Polska's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Why are market participants paying such a high price for KGHM Polska, where three out of four value indicators are below par? One reason could be that the company is well financed, indicated by the high book capital level, and has a promising future that is not yet visible in reported revenues and profits. That would also explain the low dividend yield because the company needs the cash to invest in its future. If investors can verify a picture in this sense, the stock may still be a good investment, even though current company-reported financials don't fully explain current stock prices. ...read more
Growth Strategy: KGHM Polska Growth Momentum good
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 58 (better than 58% compared with alternatives), KGHM Polska shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for KGHM Polska. Sales Growth has a rank of 56 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 56% of its competitors. Capital Growth is also above 6% of competitors with a rank of 89, and Stock Returns with the rank of 68 is also an outperformance. Only Profit Growth is low with a rank of 6 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 94% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 58, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. All three operating growth indicators, namely revenue, profit, and capital growth, are showing improvements. This is a good indication of a company with a positive future. That might, at the same time, be the simple reason why profit growth is low. A growing company needs money and thus can't yet show high profit growth. Look out for signs in corporate communication about extra growth efforts costing time and money. If that is the case, KGHM Polska is a good growth stock. ...read more
Safety Strategy: KGHM Polska Debt Financing Safety above-average
| SAFETY METRICS | April 18, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 67 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 28 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 98 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 71 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 71 (better than 71% compared with alternatives), the company KGHM Polska has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of KGHM Polska is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for KGHM Polska. Leverage is at a rank of 67, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 67% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 98, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 98% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 28, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 72% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 71 (better than 71% compared with alternatives), KGHM Polska has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for KGHM Polska. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: KGHM Polska Below-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | April 18, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 8 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 58 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 98 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 37 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 37 (worse than 63% compared with investment alternatives), KGHM Polska (Copper, Poland) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of KGHM Polska are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 8 (worse than 92% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 58) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 71, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 37, is a hold recommendation based on KGHM Polska's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company KGHM Polska exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 8), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 58). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 71) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). ...read more
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