August 3, 2023
Top 10 Stock Mainfreight Sell Recommendation



How to read the ranks

For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:

Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Snapshot: Mainfreight – Top 10 Stock in New Zealand Stock Exchange Index NZSX 50


mainfreight.com


Mainfreight is listed as a top 10 stock on August 03, 2023 in the market index NZSX 50 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only one consolidated Obermatt Rank is above-average. The company is safely financed, but all other facts speak against a stock purchase, especially the low market sentiment by professional investors. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 14 (14% performer), Obermatt issues an overall sell recommendation for Mainfreight on August 03, 2023.


Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks


Country New Zealand
Industry Air Freight & Logistics
Index NZSX 50
Size class X-Large
Latest Research


Top 10 Stocks ≠ most popular stocks

When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).

For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).


360° View: Obermatt 360° View Mainfreight Sell

360 METRICS August 3, 2023
VALUE
VALUE
GROWTH
GROWTH
SAFETY
SAFETY
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT
360° VIEW
360° VIEW

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 14 (better than 14% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Mainfreight are critical, mostly below average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for Mainfreight. The only rank that is above average is the consolidated Safety Rank at 67, which means that the company has a financing structure that is safer than those of 67% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. But the Value, Growth and Sentiment Ranks are all below average. The consolidated Value Rank has a less desirable rank of 6, which means that the share price of Mainfreight is on the high side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. The consolidated Growth Rank also has a low rank of 29, which implies that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. Finally, the consolidated Sentiment Rank is also low at a rank of 29, which means that professional investors are more pessimistic about the stock than for 71% of alternative investment opportunities. While Safety is strong, it’s not the most critical indicator, so we suggest proceeding with caution if you are considering this stock. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 14, Mainfreight is worse than 86% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. This means that Mainfreight shares are on the riskier side for investors. As only the financing structure, namely the Safety Rank, is on the safer side and all other consolidated Obermatt Ranks are below-average, this is a riskier stock investment proposition. This is especially the case, since professional investor sentiment, the consolidated Obermatt Sentiment Rank, is also low at 29. The negative market view on Mainfreight may be the high stock price (low value) or the low level of growth. This is a problem. As the Safety Rank is the least significant of the four consolidated Obermatt Ranks, we cannot identify enough positive facts that are visible today to make a case for this stock investment. The company may have a strong future which would justify the high stock price, but this is not visible from investor behavior today. As market sentiment is critical, you should be careful with paying more than market-average for this stock, and conduct further research into the company's future growth potential. Prudent investors may only want to invest a smaller portion of their wealth in such situations. Young investors can carry more risk but should still thrive for sufficient diversification. ...read more




Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Mainfreight only reserved

SENTIMENT METRICS August 3, 2023
ANALYST OPINION
ANALYST OPINION
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 29 (better than 29% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Mainfreight is below industry average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Mainfreight. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 59 (better than 59% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. Market Pulse is also positive with a rank of 86, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are positive when discussing this company (more positive news than for 86% of competitors). But Analyst Opinions Change is negative with a below 50 rank of 1, which means that stock research experts are changing their opinions for the worse in recommending the company. In other words, they are getting more critical of investments in Mainfreight. There are also only so many institutional investors holding company stock with a Professional Investors rank of 26, which means that, currently, professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 74% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 29 (less encouraging than 71% compared with investment alternatives), Mainfreight has a reputation among professional investors that is below that of its competitors. The signals are ambivalent. The positive news in the market contradicts the negative change in analyst recommendations. Since the overall analyst recommendations are still above average, the stock may be safer for investing, especially if it is not an extra-large company where Pros tend to be less present. In such a case, the Pro Investor rank is not a problem. ...read more



Value Strategy: Mainfreight Stock Price Value low

VALUE METRICS August 3, 2023
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 6 (worse than 94% compared with alternatives), Mainfreight shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Mainfreight. Price-to-Sales is 23 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 77% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Mainfreight's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 10, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Mainfreight. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 21 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 64% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 6, is a sell recommendation based on Mainfreight's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Mainfreight? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Mainfreight? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Mainfreight may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. ...read more



Growth Strategy: Mainfreight Growth Momentum low

GROWTH METRICS August 3, 2023
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 29 (better than 29% compared with alternatives), Mainfreight shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below-average for Mainfreight. While Sales Growth ranks at 87, professionals currently expect the company to grow more than 87% of its competitors, while all other growth ranks are below the market median. Profit Growth has a rank of 42, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 58% of its competitors, and Capital Growth has a low rank of 5. Historic stock returns were also below average with a current Stock Returns rank of 31 which means that the stock returns have recently been below 69% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 29, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. If revenues are expected to increase, but all other growth indicators are negative, the company may be investing in future growth through means not visible in the balance sheet and thus not reflected in capital growth. The fact that Stock Returns have been below market doesn't mean that much, as it may be due to overly optimistic investor behavior in the past, which has been corrected to a more reasonable level recently. If that were the case, a positive Value Rank would be a reason to invest because the company is still expected to grow, while stock prices are now at a more reasonable level. ...read more



Safety Strategy: Mainfreight Debt Financing Safety above-average

SAFETY METRICS August 3, 2023
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE
REFINANCING
REFINANCING
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 67 (better than 67% compared with alternatives), the company Mainfreight has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Mainfreight is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Mainfreight. Leverage is at a rank of 62, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 62% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 80, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 80% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 35, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 65% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 67 (better than 67% compared with alternatives), Mainfreight has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Mainfreight. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. ...read more



Combined financial peformance: Mainfreight Lowest Financial Performance

COMBINED PERFORMANCE August 3, 2023
VALUE
VALUE
GROWTH
GROWTH
SAFETY
SAFETY
COMBINED
COMBINED

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 10 (worse than 90% compared with investment alternatives), Mainfreight (Air Freight & Logistics, New Zealand) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Mainfreight are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 6 (worse than 94% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 29) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 67), which means low debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 10, is a sell recommendation based on Mainfreight's financial characteristics. As the company Mainfreight's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 6) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 29), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 67) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. ...read more

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