May 2, 2024
Top 10 Stock National Express Hold Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: National Express – Top 10 Stock in SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth
National Express is listed as a top 10 stock on May 02, 2024 in the market index SDG 8 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. While half the consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average, investor sentiment is below average and thus a signal for caution. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 35 (35% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall hold recommendation for National Express on May 02, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Industry | Trucking |
| Index | FTSE All Shares, FTSE 250, FTSE 350, Energy Efficient, SDG 11, SDG 12, SDG 13, SDG 3, SDG 8, Sound Pay Europe |
| Size class | X-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View National Express Hold
| 360 METRICS | May 2, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 100 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 64 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 12 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 10 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 35 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 35 (better than 35% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock National Express are below the industry average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for National Express. The consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 100, which means that the share price of National Express is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means the stock price is lower than for 100% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 64, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. But the professional market sentiment is below average compared with other stock investment alternatives with a Sentiment Rank of 10. Professional investors are more confident in 90% other stocks. Worryingly, the company has risky financing, with a Safety rank of 12. This means 88% of comparable companies have a safer financing structure than National Express. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 35, National Express is worse than 65% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. Even though half of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average, namely the Value Rank at 100 and the Growth Rank above-average at 64, the picture is still mixed. The professional investor community is skeptical, with the Sentiment Rank below-average at 10. In addition, the company financing structure is on the riskier side (Safety Rank of 12). Since the company is good value and the share price low, it should attract investors, yet professionals are skeptical. One may be tempted by above-average growth, but that could also change quickly, as past performance is not a good indicator of future performance. Since the financing structure is on the risky side, investors should be careful with this decision and conduct further research if they are serious about investing in this company. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for National Express negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 10 (better than 10% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock National Express is critical, mostly below average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for National Express. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 81 (better than 81% of alternative investments), which means that, currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. This is a good sign, were it not for Analyst Opinions Change with a low rank of 16, which means that currently, stock research experts are changing their opinions for the worse. In other words, they are getting more critical of a stock investment in National Express. The Professional Investors rank is also low at 10, meaning that professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 90% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. Even worse, Market Pulse has a low rank of 5, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are critical of this company (more negative news than for 95% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 10 (less encouraging than 90% compared with investment alternatives), National Express has a reputation among professional investors that is far below that of its competitors. There are several negative sentiment signals, with only the Analyst Opinions Rank above average. This could be a stock with a long reputation for being positive but where things are worsening. Most analysts may not see it yet, but some have, and the professionals are already quite pessimistic. Proceed with caution when investing in this stock. ...read more
Value Strategy: National Express Stock Price Value at the top
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 100 (better than 100% compared with alternatives) for 2024, National Express shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators that are all above average for National Express. Price-to-Sales is 97 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 97% of comparable companies, indicating a good value for National Express's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits, more favorable than for 86% of alternatives, and this is also true for the Price-to-Book capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 94. Compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields of National Express are expected to be higher than for 96% of all competitors (a Dividend Yield rank of 96). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 100, is a buy recommendation based on National Express's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since all value metrics are above the industry average, there is no objection to investing in National Express based on its detailed value metrics.
Growth Strategy: National Express Growth Momentum good
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 64 (better than 64% compared with alternatives), National Express shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for National Express. Sales Growth has a value of 73 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow more than 73% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a value of 61 and Capital Growth with a rank of 76 means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow both profits and invested capital more than of its competitors. But Stock Returns has only a rank of 6, which means that stock returns have recently been below 94% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 64, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. National Express has only one below-average growth indicator, the stock returns. This is probably the least reliable growth indicator, because it measures company and investor expectations at the same time. The three other growth indicators, which are all positive for National Express, are more reliable measures of growth momentum. For this reason, the company seems to be on a good trajectory, unless you think the current period is not representative, because of unique events that will not be repeated in the future. ...read more
Safety Strategy: National Express Debt Financing Safety risky
| SAFETY METRICS | May 2, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 41 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 8 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 30 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 12 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 12 (better than 12% compared with alternatives), the company National Express has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of National Express is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for National Express. Liquidity is at 30, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 70% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 41, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 59% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 8 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 92% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 12 (worse than 88% compared with alternatives), National Express has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing.
Combined financial peformance: National Express Above-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | May 2, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 100 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 64 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 30 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 65 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 65 (better than 65% compared with investment alternatives), National Express (Trucking, United Kingdom) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of National Express are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 100 (better than 100% of alternatives), show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 64) but are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 12), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 65, is a buy recommendation based on National Express's financial characteristics. As the company National Express's key financial metrics exhibit excellent performance in two areas, such as good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 100) and above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 64), it could be argued that the risk-taking in financing (Obermatt Safety Rank of only 12) indicates that the company is optimistic about the future and sees debt as an opportunity to boost returns. More debt means more shareholder returns if everything goes well. However, higher debt burdens are risky when interest rates rise or the business deteriorates in a crisis. If you believe the company's future is market-typical or even better, this could be an argument for a share purchase. ...read more
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