January 30, 2025
Top 10 Stock Origin Energy Buy Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Origin Energy – Top 10 Stock in Australian Securities Exchange Index ASX 50
Origin Energy is listed as a top 10 stock on January 30, 2025 in the market index ASX 50 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. As all consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, including positive market sentiment in the professional investor community, it is a solid stock investment where the risk of paying too much for the shares is limited. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 67 (high 67% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall buy recommendation for Origin Energy on January 30, 2025.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Origin Energy Buy
| 360 METRICS | January 30, 2025 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 55 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 63 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 50 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 66 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 67 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 67 (better than 67% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Origin Energy are above average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with all four indicators above average for Origin Energy. The consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 55, which means that the share price of Origin Energy is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means the stock price is lower than for 55% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 63, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. The company is also safely financed with a Safety rank of 50. Finally, professional market sentiment is above average compared with other stock investment alternatives with a Sentiment Rank of 66. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 67, Origin Energy is better positioned than 67% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. As all consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, such as good value (Value Rank of 55), above-average growth (Growth Rank of 63), safe financing practices (Safety Rank of 50), and a positive market sentiment in the professional investor community (Sentiment Rank of 66), it is a solid stock investment where the risk of paying too much for the shares is limited and disappointments are less likely to occur, unless information not publicly available. High-Value Ranks sometimes indicate that the company's future is challenging. If they are safely financed and have above average growth, and are still a good value, it may indicate that this will not continue. We recommend evaluating whether the future of Origin Energy is as difficult as the stock’s low price, despite what good growth and safe financing practice suggest. Since the professional community is optimistic, you might have less to worry about, and the stock is just not sufficiently visible, which may indicate good timing right now. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Origin Energy positive
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 66 (better than 66% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Origin Energy is above average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Origin Energy. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 49 (worse than 51% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. But they are changing their opinions! Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 82, which means that stock research experts are more positive in their investment recommendations in the company. In other words, they are getting more optimistic of stock investments in Origin Energy. More encouragingly, the Professional Investors rank is 78, which means that professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 78% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to favor investing in this company. But Market Pulse is on the lower side with a rank of 48, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are on the negative side when discussing this company (more negative news than for 52% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 66 (more positive than 66% compared with investment alternatives), Origin Energy has a reputation among professional investors that is above-average compared with that of its competitors. The sentiment signals are mixed for Origin Energy. While analysts and the news channels are negative, there is a change in what analysts think. Above-average institutional investors in this company support them. Sentiment signals remain mixed with analysts and news channels pessimistic, though improving, and professional investors above average. ...read more
Value Strategy: Origin Energy Stock Price Value better than average
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 55 (better than 55% compared with alternatives), Origin Energy shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Origin Energy. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 53 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 53% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Origin Energy's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 27, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 27% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than 51% of alternatives (only 49% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than 26% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 55, is a buy recommendation based on Origin Energy's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high in respect to expected revenues, it means that the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than pay it out to shareholders, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Origin Energy Growth Momentum good
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 63 (better than 63% compared with alternatives), Origin Energy shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Origin Energy. Profit Growth has a rank of 72, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits more than 72% of its competitors. This is a good sign for shareholders, which is confirmed by an above-average Stock Returns rank of 91 (above 91% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has a below the median rank of 38, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 62% of its competitors, and Capital Growth also has a lower rank of 12. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 63, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Because revenues and invested capital are the more solid growth indicators, the positive development on the profit side is less relevant. It may have been caused by cost-cutting, which may be a negative growth indicator. Finally, the above-average stock returns recently are a thing of the past and not a good indicator of future returns. Investors should be confident that the cost-cutting initiative leading to higher profits is to benefit the company's future. If not, there is little growth momentum, and investment is only advisable if the Value Ranks suggest a good investment timing for Origin Energy. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Origin Energy Debt Financing Safety above-average
| SAFETY METRICS | January 30, 2025 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 66 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 45 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 50 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 50 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 50 (better than 50% compared with alternatives), the company Origin Energy has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Origin Energy is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Origin Energy. Leverage is at a rank of 66, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 66% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 50, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 50% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 45, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 55% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 50 (better than 50% compared with alternatives), Origin Energy has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Origin Energy. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Origin Energy Above-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | January 30, 2025 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 55 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 63 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 50 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 62 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 62 (better than 62% compared with investment alternatives), Origin Energy (Electric Utilities, Australia) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Origin Energy are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 55 (better than 55% of alternatives), show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 63), and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 50), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 62, is a buy recommendation based on Origin Energy's financial characteristics. As the company Origin Energy's key financial metrics all exhibit excellent performance, such as good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 55), above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 63), and indicate that the company is safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 50), it is a solid stock investment where the risk of paying too much for the share is limited, unless the company has a bleak future. Such good financial performance can indicate that the company's future might actually be challenging, as it may be difficult to maintain the good performance. If they are safely financed and have been growing above average, and are still a good value, it means that the market is keeping prices low, for a reason which may become clearer over time. We recommend evaluating the future of Origin Energy. If you believe the company's future is market-typical or even better, this could be an argument for a share purchase. ...read more
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