March 13, 2025
Top 10 Stock Origin Energy Buy Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Origin Energy – Top 10 Stock in Australian Securities Exchange Index ASX 100
Origin Energy is listed as a top 10 stock on March 13, 2025 in the market index ASX 100 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. As three out of four consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, it is a solid investment from a financial fact perspective where only investor sentiment is a reason for caution. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 64 (high 64% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall buy recommendation for Origin Energy on March 13, 2025.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Origin Energy Buy
| 360 METRICS | March 13, 2025 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 59 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 52 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 71 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 48 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 64 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 64 (better than 64% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Origin Energy are above average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for Origin Energy. The consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 59, which means that the share price of Origin Energy is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means the stock price is lower than for 59% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 52, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth, as well as stock returns. The company is also safely financed with a Safety Rank of 71. But the professional market sentiment is below average compared with other stock investment alternatives with a Sentiment Rank of only 48. Professional investors are more confident in 52% other stocks. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 64, Origin Energy is better positioned than 64% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. As three out of four consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, such as good value (Value Rank of 59), above-average growth (Growth Rank of 52), and safe financing practices (Safety Rank of 71), it is a solid stock investment where the risk of paying too much for the shares is limited, and disappointments are less likely, unless information not publicly available. Only the professional market sentiment is on the riskier side (Sentiment Rank of 48), but that could also mean an overreaction to negative news in the past. Good value is sometimes an indication that the company's future is challenging. If they have been enjoying above average growth and are still a good value, this may not continue. We recommend evaluating whether the future of Origin Energy is as challenging as the low price of the stock despite good growth and safe financing practices suggest. Since the professional community is pessimistic, you may want to reflect these negative opinions in light of what you find reasonable to expect for the future. If you believe this pessimistic view is transitory, you have a solid investment case based on current financial factors. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Origin Energy only reserved
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 48 (better than 48% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Origin Energy is below industry average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Origin Energy. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 29 (worse than 71% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. Worse, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 45, which means that stock research experts are getting even more pessimistic. Other sentiment indicators are positive: The Professional Investors rank is 62, which means that professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 62% of alternative investment opportunities. So, pros tend to favor investing in this company. In addition, Market Pulse has a rank of 62, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be positive when discussing this company (more positive news than for 62% of competitors). While stock research analysts are getting ever more critical, many professional investors are committed to Origin Energy and the professional news channels are on the positive side. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 48 (less encouraging than 52% compared with investment alternatives), Origin Energy has a reputation among professional investors that is below that of its competitors. This is an ambiguous picture: analysts are negative and getting even more critical, while the news in the market is positive. Who should investors believe? This is a difficult question in such a situation. Investors should proceed cautiously and verify not only the financial performance in the Obermatt Value, Growth and Safety Ranks but also independent news coverage of the company. ...read more
Value Strategy: Origin Energy Stock Price Value better than average
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 59 (better than 59% compared with alternatives), Origin Energy shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for Origin Energy. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 52, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 52% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Origin Energy's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 55% of alternatives. It is also positive for expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 82 (dividends are expected to be higher than 82% of other stocks). But, compared with other companies in the same industry, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is higher than average, making the stock more expensive. Only 67% of all competitors have an even higher price compared with book capital which puts the Price-to-Capital Rank for Origin Energy to 33. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 59, is a buy recommendation based on Origin Energy's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. A low level of book capital means that the company has a business that is leaner in assets than its competitors. For instance, the company could be leasing its production facilities or be more focussed on intellectual property, such as its brand and software, which is less visible in its book capital. If that is the case, the three good value ranks for Sales, Profits, and Dividends are reliable indicators for the stock price value. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Origin Energy Growth Momentum good
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 52 (better than 52% compared with alternatives), Origin Energy shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Origin Energy. Profit Growth has a rank of 80, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits more than 80% of its competitors. This is a good sign for shareholders, which is confirmed by an above-average Stock Returns rank of 71 (above 71% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has a below the median rank of 16, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 84% of its competitors, and Capital Growth also has a lower rank of 10. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 52, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Because revenues and invested capital are the more solid growth indicators, the positive development on the profit side is less relevant. It may have been caused by cost-cutting, which may be a negative growth indicator. Finally, the above-average stock returns recently are a thing of the past and not a good indicator of future returns. Investors should be confident that the cost-cutting initiative leading to higher profits is to benefit the company's future. If not, there is little growth momentum, and investment is only advisable if the Value Ranks suggest a good investment timing for Origin Energy. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Origin Energy Debt Financing Safety above-average
| SAFETY METRICS | March 13, 2025 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 67 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 66 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 45 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 71 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 71 (better than 71% compared with alternatives), the company Origin Energy has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Origin Energy is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators where two out of three are above average for Origin Energy.Leverage is at 67, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 67% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 66, meaning that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 66% of its competitors. Liquidity is at 45, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 55% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side regarding debt service. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 71 (better than 71% compared with alternatives), Origin Energy has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. Low leverage and low refinancing risk mean a safer financing situation. However, low liquidity means that current company cash flows are low in relation to the level of debt. This is a sign of caution in case it is expected for profits to remain low. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Origin Energy Top Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | March 13, 2025 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 59 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 52 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 45 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 77 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 77 (better than 77% compared with investment alternatives), Origin Energy (Electric Utilities, Australia) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of Origin Energy are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 59 (better than 59% of alternatives), show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 52), and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 71), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 77, is a strong buy recommendation based on Origin Energy's financial characteristics. As the company Origin Energy's key financial metrics all exhibit excellent performance, such as good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 59), above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 52), and indicate that the company is safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 71), it is a solid stock investment where the risk of paying too much for the share is limited, unless the company has a bleak future. Such good financial performance can indicate that the company's future might actually be challenging, as it may be difficult to maintain the good performance. If they are safely financed and have been growing above average, and are still a good value, it means that the market is keeping prices low, for a reason which may become clearer over time. We recommend evaluating the future of Origin Energy. If you believe the company's future is market-typical or even better, this could be an argument for a share purchase. ...read more
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