July 4, 2024
Top 10 Stock Paychex Sell Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Paychex – Top 10 Stock in NASDAQ 100 Index
Paychex is listed as a top 10 stock on July 04, 2024 in the market index NASDAQ 100 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only one consolidated Obermatt Rank is above-average. The company enjoys a positive professional investor sentiment, but all financial facts speak against a stock purchase. This is probably an investment into the future. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 16 (16% performer), Obermatt issues an overall sell recommendation for Paychex on July 04, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | USA |
| Industry | Data Processing & Outsourcing |
| Index | Dividends USA, Employee Focus US, SDG 1, SDG 3, SDG 4, SDG 8, NASDAQ 100, NASDAQ, S&P 500 |
| Size class | X-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Paychex Sell
| 360 METRICS | July 4, 2024 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 29 |
|
||||||
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 31 |
|
||||||
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 20 |
|
||||||
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 78 |
|
||||||
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 16 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 16 (better than 16% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Paychex are critical, mostly below average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Paychex. The consolidated Sentiment Rank has a good rank of 78, which means that professional investors are more optimistic about the stock than for 78% of alternative investment opportunities. But all other ranks are below average. The consolidated Value Rank has a rank of 29, which means that the share price of Paychex is on the higher side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. The consolidated Growth Rank also has a low rank of 31, meaning that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, invested capital growth, and stock returns. This means that growth is lower than for 31% of competitors in the same industry. Finally, the consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 20 which means that the company has a riskier financing structure than 80% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 16, Paychex is worse than 84% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. This means that Paychex shares are on the riskier side for investors. As only the professional market sentiment (Sentiment Rank of 78) is above-average, and all other consolidated Obermatt Ranks are below peers, the stock investing proposition case is rather weak. The stock price is expensive for a company of this size in this industry, visible in the below-average Value Rank. Growth is below the competition based on the Growth Rank, and the company has more debt than other companies, according to the Safety Rank. So the question becomes: How important is the Sentiment Rank when all others are below average? When it comes to growth, the low rating might be justified if growth is expected in the future and not yet reflected in current performance. This is often the case for companies with intellectual property, such as technology and pharmaceutical companies. In the early phases, these companies are expensive compared with their size and may have a lot of debt on their books, as is the case here, as seen in the low Value and Safety Ranks. Future growth may be the strongest investment rationale in this case, which is only reflected by institutional investors' opinions. You pay more than the market average for this stock and invest in a rather debt-loaded enterprise, but it may be worth it if the future of Paychex̣ is bright. A small investment might be justified, but proceed with caution. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Paychex very positive
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 78 (better than 78% compared with alternatives) for 2024, overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Paychex is very positive. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Paychex. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 3 (worse than 97% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. Worse, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 47, which means that stock research experts are getting even more pessimistic. Other sentiment indicators are positive: The Professional Investors rank is 96, which means that professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 96% of alternative investment opportunities. So, pros tend to favor investing in this company. In addition, Market Pulse has a rank of 100, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be positive when discussing this company (more positive news than for 100% of competitors). While stock research analysts are getting ever more critical, many professional investors are committed to Paychex and the professional news channels are on the positive side. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 78 (more positive than 78% compared with investment alternatives), Paychex has a reputation among professional investors that is significantly higher than that of its competitors. This is an ambiguous picture: analysts are negative and getting even more critical, while the news in the market is positive. Who should investors believe? This is a difficult question in such a situation. Investors should proceed cautiously and verify not only the financial performance in the Obermatt Value, Growth and Safety Ranks but also independent news coverage of the company. ...read more
Value Strategy: Paychex Stock Price Value below-average critical
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 29 (worse than 71% compared with alternatives), Paychex shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Paychex. Only the metric dividend yield has an above-average rank, reflecting that dividend practices are expected to be higher than 98% of comparable companies, making the stock an attractive buy for dividend investors. However, dividend investors may get disappointed because all other critical financial indicators are below the market median: Price-to-Sales is 5 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 95% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Paychex's sales levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a rank of 26 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profit levels is higher than 74% of comparable companies. In addition, Price-to-Book (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 10 is also low. Compared with invested capital, the stock price is higher than for 90% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 29, is a hold recommendation based on Paychex's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Should dividend investors pick Paychex? The company-reported financials speak against it. The company is expensive compared with revenue and invested capital levels, two reliable company size indicators. In addition, it currently has a low level of profits. How can future dividends be paid in the case that profits remain low? Dividend investors should choose Paychex only if they reasonably expect the low current profit levels to be transitory. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Paychex Growth Momentum low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 31 (better than 31% compared with alternatives), Paychex shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Paychex. Sales Growth has a below market rank of 27, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 73% of its competitors. The same is valid for Capital Growth, with a rank of 33, and Profit Growth, with a rank of 33. Currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 67% of its competitors). Only shareholders are optimistic. Stock Returns are above average at a rank of 63, which means that the stock returns have recently been above 63% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 31, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That picture may be the result for a company that has reached the bottom. All went south for Paychex, and it still looks bad, but some investors already see light at the end of the tunnel, rewarding the stock with recent above-market stock returns. It could also mean that investors are correcting an overreaction to negative news. If that were the case, the positive stock returns are not yet a sign of recovery. Investors should look closely at the Value and Sentiment indicators before they make a stock purchasing decision, because growth is unlikely to be the driving argument behind this investment. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Paychex Debt Financing Safety risky
| SAFETY METRICS | July 4, 2024 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 83 |
|
||||||
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 27 |
|
||||||
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 18 |
|
||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 20 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 20 (better than 20% compared with alternatives), the company Paychex has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Paychex is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Paychex and the other two below average. Leverage is at a rank of 83 meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 83% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 27, which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 73% of its competitors. Liquidity is at a rank of 18, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 82% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 20 (worse than 80% compared with alternatives), Paychex has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This is an indication that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. There is only below-market average liquidity, and a short-term refinancing issue might be around the corner. But in the long-term, the debt levels of Paychex are on the safer side. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Paychex Lowest Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | July 4, 2024 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 29 |
|
||||||
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 31 |
|
||||||
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 18 |
|
||||||
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 4 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 4 (worse than 96% compared with investment alternatives), Paychex (Data Processing & Outsourcing, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Paychex are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 29 (worse than 71% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 31), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 20), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 4, is a sell recommendation based on Paychex's financial characteristics. As the company Paychex's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 29), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 31), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 20), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. ...read more
Obermatt Portfolio Performance
We’re so convinced about our research, that we buy our stock tips.
See the performance of the Obermatt portfolio.