November 14, 2024
Top 10 Stock ModivCare Sell Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: ModivCare – Top 10 Stock in Dow Jones U.S. Health Care Providers Index
ModivCare is listed as a top 10 stock on November 14, 2024 in the market index D.J. US Health Care because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only the Obermatt Value Rank exhibits above-average performance, which means that the stock is seen as critical by the professional community and other financial facts are below average, conveying mixed investment signals. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 9 (9% performer), Obermatt issues an overall sell recommendation for ModivCare on November 14, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | USA |
| Industry | Health Care Services |
| Index | NASDAQ, D.J. US Health Care |
| Size class | Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View ModivCare Sell
| 360 METRICS | November 14, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 93 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 19 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 1 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 7 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 9 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 9 (better than 9% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock ModivCare are critical, mostly below average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for ModivCare. Only the consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 93, which means that the share price of ModivCare is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means that the stock price is lower than for 93% of alternative stocks in the same industry. All other consolidated ranks are below average. The consolidated Growth Rank has a low rank of 19, which means that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. The consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 1, meaning the company has a riskier financing structure than 99% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. Finally, professionals are more pessimistic about the stock than for 93% of alternative investment opportunities, reflected in the consolidated Sentiment Rank of 7. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 9, ModivCare is worse than 91% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. This means that ModivCare shares are on the riskier side for investors. Only one of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibits above-average performance, namely the Value Rank at a level of 93. All other ranks are below average, so proceed with caution. The company has below-average growth expectations (Growth Rank of 19), a riskier financing structure than the competition (Safety Rank of 1), and the market sentiment in the professional investor community ranking at (Sentiment Rank of 7) is negative. This combination is sensitive to a crisis, because high debt levels (low safety) require growth to finance the debt burden. It’s no wonder that the investor community indicators are skeptical (low sentiment). Good value is sometimes an indication that the company's future is challenging. The below-par growth performance may be the reason for this assessment. We recommend evaluating whether the future of ModivCare is as challenging as the low price of the stock suggests. Since the professional community is pessimistic, you might need to worry about the future of ModivCare. Only invest if you have solid reasons to believe that the low growth is temporary and the current market sentiment is an overreaction, possibly due to reputational issues in the past. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for ModivCare negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 7 (better than 7% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock ModivCare is critical, mostly below average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for ModivCare. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 59 (better than 59% of alternative investments), which means that, currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. This is a good sign, were it not for Analyst Opinions Change with a low rank of 26, which means that currently, stock research experts are changing their opinions for the worse. In other words, they are getting more critical of a stock investment in ModivCare. The Professional Investors rank is also low at 3, meaning that professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 97% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. Even worse, Market Pulse has a low rank of 1, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are critical of this company (more negative news than for 99% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 7 (less encouraging than 93% compared with investment alternatives), ModivCare has a reputation among professional investors that is far below that of its competitors. There are several negative sentiment signals, with only the Analyst Opinions Rank above average. This could be a stock with a long reputation for being positive but where things are worsening. Most analysts may not see it yet, but some have, and the professionals are already quite pessimistic. Proceed with caution when investing in this stock. ...read more
Value Strategy: ModivCare Stock Price Value at the top
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 93 (better than 93% compared with alternatives) for 2024, ModivCare shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for ModivCare. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 95, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 95% of comparable companies, indicating a good value regarding ModivCare's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price to Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 100% of alternatives, and it's also true for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 90. But, compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields are expected to be lower than average; only 1% of all competitors have even lower dividend yields than ModivCare (a Dividend Yield Rank of 1). 99% alternative investments in the same business provide a higher dividend yield. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 93, is a buy recommendation based on ModivCare's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. The below-average dividend yield may be a good sign, as it could mean the company has more attractive investment opportunities for the generated cash than to pay it out as dividends. A low dividend yield can also indicate a growth phase. ...read more
Growth Strategy: ModivCare Growth Momentum negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 19 (better than 19% compared with alternatives), ModivCare shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for ModivCare. Only Capital Growth has a good rank of 75, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 6% of its competitors. The other three indicators are pointing South: Sales Growth has a rank of 49 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 51% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 6 and Stock Returns with a rank of 5 are also low (below 95% of alternative investments). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 19, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The good news from the invested capital side is surprising. A company with disappointing revenues, profits, and disappointed shareholders typically doesn't invest above average. Overall, the growth momentum for ModivCare is thus negative. As it is intriguing to see that company executives are optimistic about their investment policy, it is worthwhile looking into the details of the capital investment projects. They may indicate future growth and profits and thus if accompanied by a good value, a sign of good timing to invest in the stock. ...read more
Safety Strategy: ModivCare Debt Financing Safety risky
| SAFETY METRICS | November 14, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 12 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 1 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 9 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 1 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 1 (better than 1% compared with alternatives), the company ModivCare has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of ModivCare is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for ModivCare. Liquidity is at 9, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 91% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 12, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 88% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 1 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 99% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 1 (worse than 99% compared with alternatives), ModivCare has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing.
Combined financial peformance: ModivCare Lowest Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | November 14, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 93 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 19 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 9 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 16 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 16 (worse than 84% compared with investment alternatives), ModivCare (Health Care Services, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of ModivCare are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 93 (better than 93% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 19), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 1), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 16, is a sell recommendation based on ModivCare's financial characteristics. As the company ModivCare's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 93) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 19) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 1), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 93% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. ...read more
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