October 17, 2024
Top 10 Stock Aurizon Sell Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Aurizon – Top 10 Stock in Australian Securities Exchange Index ASX 200
Aurizon is listed as a top 10 stock on October 17, 2024 in the market index ASX 200 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. All consolidated Obermatt Ranks are below-average. Based on the Obermatt Method, an investment in the company is not advisable today. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 6 (6% performer), Obermatt issues an overall sell recommendation for Aurizon on October 17, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Aurizon Sell
| 360 METRICS | October 17, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 41 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 5 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 11 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 28 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 6 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 6 (better than 6% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Aurizon are critical, mostly below average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with all four indicators below average for Aurizon. The consolidated Value Rank has a low rank of 41 which means that the share price of Aurizon is on the higher side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means the stock price is higher than for 59% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The consolidated Growth Rank also has a low rank of 5, which means that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. This means that growth is lower than for 5% of competitors in the same industry. The consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 11, which means that the company has a riskier financing structure than 89% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. Finally, the consolidated Sentiment Rank has a low rank of 28, which means that professional investors are more pessimistic about the stock than for 72% of alternative investment opportunities. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 6, Aurizon is worse than 94% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. This means that Aurizon shares are on the riskier side for investors. As all consolidated Obermatt Ranks are below-average, this is a risky stock investment proposition, especially since professional investor sentiment, the consolidated Obermatt Sentiment Rank, is also low at 28. The negative market view on Aurizon may stem from the high stock price (low value), the low level of growth, or the risky financing structures. That's several problems with no good news anywhere. Based on the current information, we don’t see any compelling arguments to make a case for this stock investment. The company may have a strong future which would justify the high stock price, but this is not confirmed by investor behavior today. While Aurizon may have a bright future, it is reflected in neither the financial indicators nor the market sentiment. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Aurizon only reserved
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 28 (better than 28% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Aurizon is below industry average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the indicators below and above average for Aurizon. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 26 (worse than 74% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. But they are changing their opinions! Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 50 which means that stock research experts are changing their opinions for the better. In other words, they are getting more optimistic of stock investments in Aurizon. Market Pulse is also positive with a rank of 62, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are positive in their discussions about this company (more positive news than for 62% of competitors). Only professional investors tend to be absent with a Professional Investors rank of 47, which means that professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 53% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. But that could also be due to the size of the company. Professional investors tend to invest in XL and XXL companies. If the company is smaller than that, that fact alone may explain why there are fewer pros present. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 28 (less encouraging than 72% compared with investment alternatives), Aurizon has a reputation among professional investors that is below that of its competitors. Since analysts are getting more optimistic and the professional communication channels are positive, it may be an indication of a company that has the difficult times behind it or the stocks’ value is improving. For medium to smaller companies, the positive sentiment indicators outshine the negative. ...read more
Value Strategy: Aurizon Stock Price Value below-average critical
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 41 (worse than 59% compared with alternatives), Aurizon shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Aurizon. Only the metric dividend yield has an above-average rank, reflecting that dividend practices are expected to be higher than 89% of comparable companies, making the stock an attractive buy for dividend investors. However, dividend investors may get disappointed because all other critical financial indicators are below the market median: Price-to-Sales is 30 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 70% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Aurizon's sales levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a rank of 46 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profit levels is higher than 54% of comparable companies. In addition, Price-to-Book (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 29 is also low. Compared with invested capital, the stock price is higher than for 71% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 41, is a hold recommendation based on Aurizon's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Should dividend investors pick Aurizon? The company-reported financials speak against it. The company is expensive compared with revenue and invested capital levels, two reliable company size indicators. In addition, it currently has a low level of profits. How can future dividends be paid in the case that profits remain low? Dividend investors should choose Aurizon only if they reasonably expect the low current profit levels to be transitory. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Aurizon Growth Momentum negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 5 (better than 5% compared with alternatives), Aurizon shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four metrics below average for Aurizon. Sales Growth has a rank of 34, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 66% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth, with a rank of 27, and Capital Growth with 21. In addition, Stock Returns have a below market rank of 29, which means that the stock returns have recently been below 71% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 5, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. These are all bad growth momentum indicators. These are negative signals for investors interested in growth companies. Value is likely good for this company, as investors may have left this stock in the cold. If that is the case, investors should look at the company's outlook, especially Sentiment performance, because it may be a turnaround situation that could entail above-average stock returns in the future. But it remains a risky bet, as no growth signals are in the green zone yet. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Aurizon Debt Financing Safety risky
| SAFETY METRICS | October 17, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 26 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 15 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 28 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 11 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 11 (better than 11% compared with alternatives), the company Aurizon has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Aurizon is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Aurizon. Liquidity is at 28, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 72% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 26, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 74% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 15 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 85% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 11 (worse than 89% compared with alternatives), Aurizon has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing.
Combined financial peformance: Aurizon Lowest Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | October 17, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 41 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 5 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 28 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 5 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 5 (worse than 95% compared with investment alternatives), Aurizon (Railroads, Australia) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Aurizon are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 41 (worse than 59% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 5), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 11), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 5, is a sell recommendation based on Aurizon's financial characteristics. As the company Aurizon's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 41), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 5), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 11), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. ...read more
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