September 26, 2024
Top 10 Stock Supernus Pharma Sell Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Supernus Pharma – Top 10 Stock in Moonshot High Tech
Supernus Pharma is listed as a top 10 stock on September 26, 2024 in the market index Moonshot Tech because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only one consolidated Obermatt Rank is above-average. The company is safely financed, but all other facts speak against a stock purchase, especially the low market sentiment by professional investors. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 12 (12% performer), Obermatt issues an overall sell recommendation for Supernus Pharma on September 26, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | USA |
| Industry | Pharmaceuticals |
| Index | Moonshot Tech, NASDAQ, D.J. US Pharmaceutical |
| Size class | Medium |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Supernus Pharma Sell
| 360 METRICS | September 26, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 25 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 9 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 100 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 11 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 12 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 12 (better than 12% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Supernus Pharma are critical, mostly below average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for Supernus Pharma. The only rank that is above average is the consolidated Safety Rank at 100, which means that the company has a financing structure that is safer than those of 100% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. But the Value, Growth and Sentiment Ranks are all below average. The consolidated Value Rank has a less desirable rank of 25, which means that the share price of Supernus Pharma is on the high side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. The consolidated Growth Rank also has a low rank of 9, which implies that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. Finally, the consolidated Sentiment Rank is also low at a rank of 11, which means that professional investors are more pessimistic about the stock than for 89% of alternative investment opportunities. While Safety is strong, it’s not the most critical indicator, so we suggest proceeding with caution if you are considering this stock. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 12, Supernus Pharma is worse than 88% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. This means that Supernus Pharma shares are on the riskier side for investors. As only the financing structure, namely the Safety Rank, is on the safer side and all other consolidated Obermatt Ranks are below-average, this is a riskier stock investment proposition. This is especially the case, since professional investor sentiment, the consolidated Obermatt Sentiment Rank, is also low at 11. The negative market view on Supernus Pharma may be the high stock price (low value) or the low level of growth. This is a problem. As the Safety Rank is the least significant of the four consolidated Obermatt Ranks, we cannot identify enough positive facts that are visible today to make a case for this stock investment. The company may have a strong future which would justify the high stock price, but this is not visible from investor behavior today. As market sentiment is critical, you should be careful with paying more than market-average for this stock, and conduct further research into the company's future growth potential. Prudent investors may only want to invest a smaller portion of their wealth in such situations. Young investors can carry more risk but should still thrive for sufficient diversification. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Supernus Pharma negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 11 (better than 11% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Supernus Pharma is critical, mostly below average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half the indicators below and half above average for Supernus Pharma. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 34 (worse than 66% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. Worse, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 17, which means that stock research experts are getting even more pessimistic. In addition, the Professional Investors rank is 12, which means that professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 88% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. The only positive sentiment indicator for Supernus Pharma is Market Pulse, with a rank of 60, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be positive when discussing this company (more positive news than for 60% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 11 (less encouraging than 89% compared with investment alternatives), Supernus Pharma has a reputation among professional investors that is far below that of its competitors. This is an ambiguous picture: analysts are negative and getting even more critical while the news in the market is positive. Who should investors believe? This is a difficult question in such a situation. Investors should proceed cautiously and verify not only the financial performance in the Obermatt Value, Growth and Safety Ranks but also independent news coverage of the company. ...read more
Value Strategy: Supernus Pharma Stock Price Value below-average critical
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 25 (worse than 75% compared with alternatives), Supernus Pharma shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Supernus Pharma. Price-to-Sales is 41 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 59% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Supernus Pharma's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 48, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Supernus Pharma. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 45 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 99% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 25, is a hold recommendation based on Supernus Pharma's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Supernus Pharma? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Supernus Pharma? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Supernus Pharma may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Supernus Pharma Growth Momentum negative
| GROWTH METRICS | September 26, 2024 | |||||||
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| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 12 |
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| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 18 |
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| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | 23 |
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| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 55 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 9 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 9 (better than 9% compared with alternatives), Supernus Pharma shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Supernus Pharma. Sales Growth has a below market rank of 12, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 88% of its competitors. The same is valid for Capital Growth, with a rank of 23, and Profit Growth, with a rank of 18. Currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 82% of its competitors). Only shareholders are optimistic. Stock Returns are above average at a rank of 55, which means that the stock returns have recently been above 55% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 9, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That picture may be the result for a company that has reached the bottom. All went south for Supernus Pharma, and it still looks bad, but some investors already see light at the end of the tunnel, rewarding the stock with recent above-market stock returns. It could also mean that investors are correcting an overreaction to negative news. If that were the case, the positive stock returns are not yet a sign of recovery. Investors should look closely at the Value and Sentiment indicators before they make a stock purchasing decision, because growth is unlikely to be the driving argument behind this investment. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Supernus Pharma Debt Financing Safety very solid
| SAFETY METRICS | September 26, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 100 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 49 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 81 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 100 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 100 (better than 100% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company Supernus Pharma has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Supernus Pharma is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Supernus Pharma. Leverage is at a rank of 100, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 100% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 81, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 81% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 49, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 51% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 100 (better than 100% compared with alternatives), Supernus Pharma has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Supernus Pharma. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: Supernus Pharma Below-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | September 26, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 25 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 9 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 81 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 28 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 28 (worse than 72% compared with investment alternatives), Supernus Pharma (Pharmaceuticals, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Supernus Pharma are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 25 (worse than 75% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 9) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 100), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 28, is a hold recommendation based on Supernus Pharma's financial characteristics. As the company Supernus Pharma's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 25) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 9), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 100) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. ...read more
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