September 19, 2024
Top 10 Stock UGI Sell Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: UGI – Top 10 Stock in S&P Mid-Cap Index
UGI is listed as a top 10 stock on September 19, 2024 in the market index S&P MIDCAP because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. While only half of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit above-average performance, the professional market sentiment is positive and it may be a solid investment proposition, especially if a growth recovery is to be expected soon. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 23 (23% performer), Obermatt issues an overall sell recommendation for UGI on September 19, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | USA |
| Industry | Gas Utilities |
| Index | Low Emissions, S&P MIDCAP |
| Size class | X-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View UGI Sell
| 360 METRICS | September 19, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 100 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 11 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 9 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 51 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 23 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 23 (better than 23% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock UGI are critical, mostly below average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half the metrics below and half above average for UGI. The consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 100, which means that the share price of UGI is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means that the stock price is lower than for 100% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The consolidated Sentiment Rank has a good rank of 51, which means that professional investors are more optimistic about the stock than for 51% of alternative investment opportunities. But the consolidated Growth Rank has a low rank of 11, which means that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, invested capital growth, and stock returns. The consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 9, meaning the company has a riskier financing structure than 91 comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 23, UGI is worse than 77% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. This means that UGI shares are on the riskier side for investors. Half of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit above-average performance, but the other half are below market levels. The company enjoys a good value (Value Rank of 100) and positive market sentiment in the professional investor community (Sentiment Rank of 51), but growth expectations are below-average (Growth Rank of 11) and the financing structure is on the risky side(Safety Rank of 9). This combination is rather dangerous, because high debt levels (low safety) require growth to finance the debt burden. The current low growth level may be temporary, because professionals are actually optimistic (positive sentiment). Good value is sometimes an indication that the company's future is challenging. The below-par growth performance may be the reason for this assessment. Companies with less growth typically have a lower price than fast-growing competitors. Even though professional investor sentiment is strong, we recommend further evaluating whether the future of UGI is as challenging as the stock's low price suggests. Since the professional community is optimistic, the stock might just be going through a more challenging phase now, indicating that timing might be good now. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for UGI positive
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 51 (better than 51% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock UGI is above average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with all but one indicator above average for UGI. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 62 (better than 62% of alternative investments), which means that, currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. In addition, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 50, which means that stock research experts are changing their opinions for the better in recommending investing in the company. In other words, they are getting even more optimistic about investments in UGI. Finally, the Professional Investors rank is 89, which means that currently, professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 89% of alternative investment opportunities. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 51 (more positive than 51% compared with investment alternatives), UGI has a reputation among professional investors that is above-average compared with that of its competitors. Pros tend to favor investing in this company. But there is also a signal for caution. Market Pulse has a rank of 1, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be negative when discussing this company (more negative news than for 99% of competitors). This could mean future risks and should make investors careful. Attention to negative news for UGI is worthwhile because they may be early warning signals. Without those, all other professional signals are encouraging, especially since analysts are getting more optimistic. ...read more
Value Strategy: UGI Stock Price Value at the top
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 100 (better than 100% compared with alternatives) for 2024, UGI shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators that are all above average for UGI. Price-to-Sales is 100 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 100% of comparable companies, indicating a good value for UGI's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits, more favorable than for 100% of alternatives, and this is also true for the Price-to-Book capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 94. Compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields of UGI are expected to be higher than for 97% of all competitors (a Dividend Yield rank of 97). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 100, is a buy recommendation based on UGI's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since all value metrics are above the industry average, there is no objection to investing in UGI based on its detailed value metrics.
Growth Strategy: UGI Growth Momentum negative
| GROWTH METRICS | September 19, 2024 | |||||||
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| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 32 |
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| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 25 |
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| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | 72 |
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| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 11 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 11 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 11 (better than 11% compared with alternatives), UGI shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for UGI. Only Capital Growth has a good rank of 72, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 25% of its competitors. The other three indicators are pointing South: Sales Growth has a rank of 32 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 68% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 25 and Stock Returns with a rank of 11 are also low (below 89% of alternative investments). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 11, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The good news from the invested capital side is surprising. A company with disappointing revenues, profits, and disappointed shareholders typically doesn't invest above average. Overall, the growth momentum for UGI is thus negative. As it is intriguing to see that company executives are optimistic about their investment policy, it is worthwhile looking into the details of the capital investment projects. They may indicate future growth and profits and thus if accompanied by a good value, a sign of good timing to invest in the stock. ...read more
Safety Strategy: UGI Debt Financing Safety risky
| SAFETY METRICS | September 19, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 22 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 45 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 1 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 9 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 9 (better than 9% compared with alternatives), the company UGI has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of UGI is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for UGI. Liquidity is at 1, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 99% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 22, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 78% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 45 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 55% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 9 (worse than 91% compared with alternatives), UGI has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing.
Combined financial peformance: UGI Lowest Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | September 19, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 100 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 11 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 1 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 15 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 15 (worse than 85% compared with investment alternatives), UGI (Gas Utilities, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of UGI are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 100 (better than 100% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 11), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 9), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 15, is a sell recommendation based on UGI's financial characteristics. As the company UGI's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 100) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 11) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 9), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 100% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. ...read more
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