December 26, 2024
Top 10 Stock UGI Sell Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: UGI – Top 10 Stock in Low Emission Leaders
UGI is listed as a top 10 stock on December 26, 2024 in the market index Low Emissions because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only the Obermatt Value Rank exhibits above-average performance, which means that the stock is seen as critical by the professional community and other financial facts are below average, conveying mixed investment signals. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 9 (9% performer), Obermatt issues an overall sell recommendation for UGI on December 26, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | USA |
| Industry | Gas Utilities |
| Index | Low Emissions, S&P MIDCAP |
| Size class | X-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View UGI Sell
| 360 METRICS | December 26, 2024 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 100 |
|
||||||
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 3 |
|
||||||
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 27 |
|
||||||
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 24 |
|
||||||
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 9 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 9 (better than 9% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock UGI are critical, mostly below average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for UGI. Only the consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 100, which means that the share price of UGI is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means that the stock price is lower than for 100% of alternative stocks in the same industry. All other consolidated ranks are below average. The consolidated Growth Rank has a low rank of 3, which means that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. The consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 27, meaning the company has a riskier financing structure than 73% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. Finally, professionals are more pessimistic about the stock than for 76% of alternative investment opportunities, reflected in the consolidated Sentiment Rank of 24. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 9, UGI is worse than 91% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. This means that UGI shares are on the riskier side for investors. Only one of the consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibits above-average performance, namely the Value Rank at a level of 100. All other ranks are below average, so proceed with caution. The company has below-average growth expectations (Growth Rank of 3), a riskier financing structure than the competition (Safety Rank of 27), and the market sentiment in the professional investor community ranking at (Sentiment Rank of 24) is negative. This combination is sensitive to a crisis, because high debt levels (low safety) require growth to finance the debt burden. It’s no wonder that the investor community indicators are skeptical (low sentiment). Good value is sometimes an indication that the company's future is challenging. The below-par growth performance may be the reason for this assessment. We recommend evaluating whether the future of UGI is as challenging as the low price of the stock suggests. Since the professional community is pessimistic, you might need to worry about the future of UGI. Only invest if you have solid reasons to believe that the low growth is temporary and the current market sentiment is an overreaction, possibly due to reputational issues in the past. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for UGI negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 24 (better than 24% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock UGI is critical, mostly below average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for UGI. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 96 (better than 96% of alternative investments), which means that, currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. Analyst Opinions Change is also positive and has a rank of 50 which means that currently, stock research experts are getting even more optimistic about investments in UGI. But Market Pulse has a low rank of 1, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are on the negative side when discussing this company (more negative news than for 99% of competitors). This is an essential sign of caution, as it could be the forebearer of bad news. Professional Investors are also somewhat absent with a rank of 21, which means that, currently, professional investors hold less stock in this company than in 79% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to invest in other companies. This is expected if the company is of a smaller size (medium or smaller). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 24 (less encouraging than 76% compared with investment alternatives), UGI has a reputation among professional investors that is far below that of its competitors. While the general news feeds in the professional market are negative, the analyst recommendations are optimistic about the company, and even increase their ratings despite the negative news. This is an ambiguous situation with positive and negative signals from the professional side. Investors should be on the lookout for negative news but not worry too much about it as long as the overall news is still positive. ...read more
Value Strategy: UGI Stock Price Value at the top
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 100 (better than 100% compared with alternatives) for 2024, UGI shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators that are all above average for UGI. Price-to-Sales is 98 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 98% of comparable companies, indicating a good value for UGI's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits, more favorable than for 98% of alternatives, and this is also true for the Price-to-Book capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 68. Compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields of UGI are expected to be higher than for 97% of all competitors (a Dividend Yield rank of 97). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 100, is a buy recommendation based on UGI's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since all value metrics are above the industry average, there is no objection to investing in UGI based on its detailed value metrics.
Growth Strategy: UGI Growth Momentum negative
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 3 (better than 3% compared with alternatives), UGI shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for UGI. Sales Growth has a below market rank of 8, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 92% of its competitors. The same is valid for Capital Growth, with a rank of 18, and Profit Growth, with a rank of 16. Currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 84% of its competitors). Only shareholders are optimistic. Stock Returns are above average at a rank of 55, which means that the stock returns have recently been above 55% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 3, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That picture may be the result for a company that has reached the bottom. All went south for UGI, and it still looks bad, but some investors already see light at the end of the tunnel, rewarding the stock with recent above-market stock returns. It could also mean that investors are correcting an overreaction to negative news. If that were the case, the positive stock returns are not yet a sign of recovery. Investors should look closely at the Value and Sentiment indicators before they make a stock purchasing decision, because growth is unlikely to be the driving argument behind this investment. ...read more
Safety Strategy: UGI Debt Financing Safety below-average
| SAFETY METRICS | December 26, 2024 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 22 |
|
||||||
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 29 |
|
||||||
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 63 |
|
||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 27 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 27 (better than 27% compared with alternatives), the company UGI has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of UGI is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for UGI. Liquidity is at 63, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 63% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is riskier at a rank of 29, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 71% of its competitors. Leverage is also high at a rank of 22, which means that the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 78% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 27 (worse than 73% compared with alternatives), UGI has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. High Leverage (a low Obermatt Leverage Rank) is good in good times, because it usually indicates that shareholders get higher returns. The good Liquidity performance of the company is an indicator that this is the case. However, if you expect an economic downturn, you may stay clear of this stock because they have an above-average debt level that needs refinancing soon. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: UGI Lowest Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | December 26, 2024 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 100 |
|
||||||
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 3 |
|
||||||
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 63 |
|
||||||
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 23 |
|
||||||
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 23 (worse than 77% compared with investment alternatives), UGI (Gas Utilities, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of UGI are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 100 (better than 100% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 3), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 27), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 23, is a sell recommendation based on UGI's financial characteristics. As the company UGI's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 100) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 3) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 27), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 100% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. ...read more
Obermatt Portfolio Performance
We’re so convinced about our research, that we buy our stock tips.
See the performance of the Obermatt portfolio.