March 28, 2024
Top 10 Stock UPM Strong Buy Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: UPM – Top 10 Stock in Optionsmäklarna Helsinki Stock Exchange Helsinki Index OMX 25
UPM is listed as a top 10 stock on March 28, 2024 in the market index OMX 25 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. As all consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, including positive market sentiment in the professional investor community, it is a solid stock investment where the risk of paying too much for the shares is limited. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 94 (top 94% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall strong buy recommendation for UPM on March 28, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | Finland |
| Industry | Paper Products |
| Index | OMX 25, Low Emissions, Customer Focus EU, Employee Focus EU, Energy Efficient, Human Rights, Low Waste, Nuclear, Recycling, Timber Industry |
| Size class | X-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View UPM Strong Buy
| 360 METRICS | March 28, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 57 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 73 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 71 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 78 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 94 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 94 (better than 94% compared with alternatives) for 2024, overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock UPM are very positive. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with all four indicators above average for UPM. The consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 57, which means that the share price of UPM is on the lower side compared with the typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means the stock price is lower than for 57% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 73, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. The company is also safely financed with a Safety rank of 71. Finally, professional market sentiment is above average compared with other stock investment alternatives with a Sentiment Rank of 78. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 94, UPM is better positioned than 94% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. As all consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, such as good value (Value Rank of 57), above-average growth (Growth Rank of 73), safe financing practices (Safety Rank of 71), and a positive market sentiment in the professional investor community (Sentiment Rank of 78), it is a solid stock investment where the risk of paying too much for the shares is limited and disappointments are less likely to occur, unless information not publicly available. High-Value Ranks sometimes indicate that the company's future is challenging. If they are safely financed and have above average growth, and are still a good value, it may indicate that this will not continue. We recommend evaluating whether the future of UPM is as difficult as the stock’s low price, despite what good growth and safe financing practice suggest. Since the professional community is optimistic, you might have less to worry about, and the stock is just not sufficiently visible, which may indicate good timing right now. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for UPM very positive
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 78 (better than 78% compared with alternatives) for 2024, overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock UPM is very positive. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with all but one indicator above average for UPM. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 31 (worse than 69% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. But they are changing their opinions! Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 50, which indicates a shift in stock research experts opinions for the better. In other words, they are getting more optimistic about stock investments in UPM. Even better, the Professional Investors rank is 76, meaning that professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 76% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to favor investing in this company. Furthermore, Market Pulse has a rank of 81, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are upbeat when discussing this company (more positive news than for 81% of competitors). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 78 (more positive than 78% compared with investment alternatives), UPM has a reputation among professional investors that is significantly higher than that of its competitors. While analysts are still critical of the company, some are changing their minds. In addition, the professional news channels are optimistic, and many institutional investors have already bought stock in the company. These are encouraging signals, despite the still lower level of analyst recommendations. They may be due to a problematic past, and about to change. The positive sentiment signals are stronger than the negative. ...read more
Value Strategy: UPM Stock Price Value better than average
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 57 (better than 57% compared with alternatives), UPM shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for UPM. Only the metric dividend yield has an above-average rank, reflecting that dividend practices are expected to be higher than 84% of comparable companies, making the stock an attractive buy for dividend investors. However, dividend investors may get disappointed because all other critical financial indicators are below the market median: Price-to-Sales is 23 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 77% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning UPM's sales levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a rank of 44 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profit levels is higher than 56% of comparable companies. In addition, Price-to-Book (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 44 is also low. Compared with invested capital, the stock price is higher than for 56% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 57, is a buy recommendation based on UPM's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Should dividend investors pick UPM? The company-reported financials speak against it. The company is expensive compared with revenue and invested capital levels, two reliable company size indicators. In addition, it currently has a low level of profits. How can future dividends be paid in the case that profits remain low? Dividend investors should choose UPM only if they reasonably expect the low current profit levels to be transitory. ...read more
Growth Strategy: UPM Growth Momentum good
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 73 (better than 73% compared with alternatives), UPM shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for UPM. Profit Growth has a rank of 68 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits more than 68% of its competitors. The same is valid for capital growth and stock returns. Capital Growth has a rank of 50, and Stock Returns has a rank of 67 which means that the stock returns have recently been above 67% of alternative investments. Only revenue growth is low with a Sales Growth has a rank of 46 (54% of its competitors are better). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 73, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The many positive growth indicators indicate a positive growth momentum with only low revenue growth. That can also be attributed to divestments or the sale of unprofitable businesses. If that is the reason, overall growth is well on track to making this stock attractive for growth investors. ...read more
Safety Strategy: UPM Debt Financing Safety above-average
| SAFETY METRICS | March 28, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 68 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 31 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 80 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 71 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 71 (better than 71% compared with alternatives), the company UPM has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of UPM is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for UPM. Leverage is at a rank of 68, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 68% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 80, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 80% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 31, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 69% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 71 (better than 71% compared with alternatives), UPM has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for UPM. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: UPM Top Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | March 28, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 57 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 73 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 80 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 82 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 82 (better than 82% compared with investment alternatives), UPM (Paper Products, Finland) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of UPM are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 57 (better than 57% of alternatives), show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 73), and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 71), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 82, is a strong buy recommendation based on UPM's financial characteristics. As the company UPM's key financial metrics all exhibit excellent performance, such as good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 57), above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 73), and indicate that the company is safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 71), it is a solid stock investment where the risk of paying too much for the share is limited, unless the company has a bleak future. Such good financial performance can indicate that the company's future might actually be challenging, as it may be difficult to maintain the good performance. If they are safely financed and have been growing above average, and are still a good value, it means that the market is keeping prices low, for a reason which may become clearer over time. We recommend evaluating the future of UPM. If you believe the company's future is market-typical or even better, this could be an argument for a share purchase. ...read more
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