August 1, 2024
Top 10 Stock UPM Strong Buy Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: UPM – Top 10 Stock in Wood & Timber Industry
UPM is listed as a top 10 stock on August 01, 2024 in the market index Timber Industry because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. As three out of four consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, it is a solid investment where the risk of paying too much for the shares is low, despite a currently slow growth momentum. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 75 (top 75% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall strong buy recommendation for UPM on August 01, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | Finland |
| Industry | Paper Products |
| Index | OMX 25, Low Emissions, Customer Focus EU, Employee Focus EU, Energy Efficient, Human Rights, Low Waste, Nuclear, Recycling, Timber Industry |
| Size class | X-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View UPM Strong Buy
| 360 METRICS | August 1, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 60 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 30 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 78 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 75 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 75 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 75 (better than 75% compared with alternatives) for 2024, overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock UPM are very positive. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for UPM. The consolidated Value Rank has an attractive rank of 60, which means that the share price of UPM is on the lower side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means the stock price is lower than for 60% of alternative stocks in the same industry. The company is also safely financed with a Safety rank of 78. In addition, professional market sentiment is above average compared with other stock investment alternatives with a Sentiment Rank of 75. But the consolidated Growth Rank has a low rank of 30, which means that the company is below average in terms of growth and momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth as well as stock returns. 70 of its competitors have better growth. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 75, UPM is better positioned than 75% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. Three out of four consolidated Obermatt Ranks show above-average performance. The stock has as good value (Value Rank of 60), secure financing practices (Safety Rank of 78), and positive market sentiment in the professional investor community (Sentiment Rank of 75). It is a solid stock investment where the risk of paying too much for the shares is limited, and disappointments are less likely to occur. The company’s growth expectations are below the industry average (Growth Rank of 30), but that could also be temporary since professional investors remain optimistic despite the low growth numbers. The low price as reflected in the good Value Rank could indicate that the company's future is challenging. The below-par growth performance may be the reason for this. Companies that grow less are typically cheaper than fast-growing competitors. We recommend evaluating whether the future of UPM is as difficult as the stock’s low price suggests, despite the positive professional investor sentiment. Since the professional community is optimistic, you might have less to worry about, and the stock may just go through a more challenging phase now, indicating good timing. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for UPM very positive
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 75 (better than 75% compared with alternatives) for 2024, overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock UPM is very positive. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for UPM. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 41 (worse than 59% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. Worse, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 28, which means that stock research experts are getting even more pessimistic. Other sentiment indicators are positive: The Professional Investors rank is 90, which means that professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 90% of alternative investment opportunities. So, pros tend to favor investing in this company. In addition, Market Pulse has a rank of 78, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be positive when discussing this company (more positive news than for 78% of competitors). While stock research analysts are getting ever more critical, many professional investors are committed to UPM and the professional news channels are on the positive side. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 75 (more positive than 75% compared with investment alternatives), UPM has a reputation among professional investors that is significantly higher than that of its competitors. This is an ambiguous picture: analysts are negative and getting even more critical, while the news in the market is positive. Who should investors believe? This is a difficult question in such a situation. Investors should proceed cautiously and verify not only the financial performance in the Obermatt Value, Growth and Safety Ranks but also independent news coverage of the company. ...read more
Value Strategy: UPM Stock Price Value better than average
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 60 (better than 60% compared with alternatives), UPM shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for UPM. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 51 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 51% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning UPM's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 49, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 49% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than 81% of alternatives (only 19% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than 14% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 60, is a buy recommendation based on UPM's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high in respect to expected revenues, it means that the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than pay it out to shareholders, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. ...read more
Growth Strategy: UPM Growth Momentum low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 30 (better than 30% compared with alternatives), UPM shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for UPM. Profit Growth has a rank of 68, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits more than 68% of its competitors. This is a good sign for shareholders, which is confirmed by an above-average Stock Returns rank of 59 (above 59% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has a below the median rank of 21, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 79% of its competitors, and Capital Growth also has a lower rank of 35. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 30, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Because revenues and invested capital are the more solid growth indicators, the positive development on the profit side is less relevant. It may have been caused by cost-cutting, which may be a negative growth indicator. Finally, the above-average stock returns recently are a thing of the past and not a good indicator of future returns. Investors should be confident that the cost-cutting initiative leading to higher profits is to benefit the company's future. If not, there is little growth momentum, and investment is only advisable if the Value Ranks suggest a good investment timing for UPM. ...read more
Safety Strategy: UPM Debt Financing Safety very solid
| SAFETY METRICS | August 1, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 73 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 28 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 88 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 78 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 78 (better than 78% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company UPM has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of UPM is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for UPM. Leverage is at a rank of 73, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 73% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 88, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 88% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 28, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 72% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 78 (better than 78% compared with alternatives), UPM has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for UPM. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: UPM Above-Average Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | August 1, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 60 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 30 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 88 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 74 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 74 (better than 74% compared with investment alternatives), UPM (Paper Products, Finland) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of UPM are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 60 (better than 60% of alternatives), are safely financed (Safety Rank of 78, which means low debt burdens), but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 30). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 74, is a buy recommendation based on UPM's financial characteristics. As the company UPM's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 60) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 30) while being safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 78), it may be a safer investment because companies with low debt can better withstand times of crises. Yet the good value, better than 60% of comparable companies, may also indicate that the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity and the downside is limited due to below-average financing risks. ...read more
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