March 13, 2025
Top 10 Stock UPM Strong Buy Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: UPM – Top 10 Stock in Wood & Timber Industry
UPM is listed as a top 10 stock on March 13, 2025 in the market index Timber Industry because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Three consolidated Obermatt Ranks are above-average. Only the Value Rank is below average. The investment rationale may be an investment in future growth, supported by professional market opinion. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 91 (top 91% performer), Obermatt assesses an overall strong buy recommendation for UPM on March 13, 2025.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
| Country | Finland |
| Industry | Paper Products |
| Index | OMX 25, Low Emissions, Customer Focus EU, Employee Focus EU, Energy Efficient, Human Rights, Low Waste, Nuclear, Recycling, Timber Industry |
| Size class | X-Large |
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View UPM Strong Buy
| 360 METRICS | March 13, 2025 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 41 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 75 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 82 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 71 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 91 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 91 (better than 91% compared with alternatives) for 2025, overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock UPM are very positive. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with all but one indicator above average for UPM. The consolidated Growth Rank has a good rank of 75, which means that the company experiences above-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, and invested capital growth, as well as stock returns. This means that growth is higher than for 75% of competitors in the same industry. The consolidated Safety Rank at 82 means that the company has a financing structure that is safer than 82% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. Finally, the consolidated Sentiment Rank has a good rank of 71, which means that professional investors are more optimistic about the stock than for 71% of alternative investment opportunities. But the consolidated Value Rank is less desirable at 41, meaning that the share price of UPM is on the higher side compared with indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. This means the stock price is higher than for 59% of alternative stocks in the same industry. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 91, UPM is better positioned than 91% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. As three out of four consolidated Obermatt Ranks exhibit excellent performance, such as above-average growth (Growth Rank of 75), a safe financing structure (Safety Rank of 82), and positive professional market sentiment (Sentiment Rank of 71), it is a solid stock investment where growth may be the strongest driver of the investment rationale, also reflected by institutional investors. It is typical for growth companies to have low value, as is the case here. Investors are willing to pay more for companies that outperform their competitors. So the question is, how much more do you pay for the stock of UPM compared with alternatives? You can use the following rule of thumb: The growth rank measures the growth momentum of the company (75% better than peers). The value rank could be the reverse reflection of that (25%). A Value Rank below that level may be assessed as expensive, a rank above that is still good value. Sometimes market sentiment just reflects the past, sometimes the reality. You pay more than the market average for this stock, but it may be worth it. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for UPM positive
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 71 (better than 71% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock UPM is above average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators where all but one are above average for UPM. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 53 (better than 53% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to recommend a stock investment in the company. The Professional Investors rank is also good at 64, which means that currently, professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 64% of alternative investment opportunities. Pros tend to favor investing in this company. In addition, Market Pulse has a rank of 75 which means that the current professional news and professional social networks are on the positive side when discussing this company (more positive news than for 75% of competitors). But Analyst Opinions Change has a below-average rank of 35, which means that stock research experts are currently changing their opinions for the worse when it comes to recommending this stock. In other words, they are getting more critical of investments in UPM. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 71 (more positive than 71% compared with investment alternatives), UPM has a reputation among professional investors that is above-average compared with that of its competitors. This is an early sign of caution, even if the stock has significantly appreciated. If analysts change their opinions, the stock may become too expensive. If the price is on the way down, the trend may continue. This may be a stock with a good reputation and history, but it may have reached its breaking point by now. Investors should look at the Value Ranks as well. If they indicate trouble, it might just materialize in the future. ...read more
Value Strategy: UPM Stock Price Value below-average critical
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 41 (worse than 59% compared with alternatives), UPM shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for UPM. Only the metric dividend yield has an above-average rank, reflecting that dividend practices are expected to be higher than 94% of comparable companies, making the stock an attractive buy for dividend investors. However, dividend investors may get disappointed because all other critical financial indicators are below the market median: Price-to-Sales is 19 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 81% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning UPM's sales levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a rank of 38 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profit levels is higher than 62% of comparable companies. In addition, Price-to-Book (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 39 is also low. Compared with invested capital, the stock price is higher than for 61% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 41, is a hold recommendation based on UPM's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Should dividend investors pick UPM? The company-reported financials speak against it. The company is expensive compared with revenue and invested capital levels, two reliable company size indicators. In addition, it currently has a low level of profits. How can future dividends be paid in the case that profits remain low? Dividend investors should choose UPM only if they reasonably expect the low current profit levels to be transitory. ...read more
Growth Strategy: UPM Growth Momentum high
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 75 (better than 75% compared with alternatives) for 2025, UPM shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for UPM. Sales Growth has a value of 55 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow more than 55% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a value of 51 and Capital Growth with a rank of 82 means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow both profits and invested capital more than of its competitors. But Stock Returns has only a rank of 39, which means that stock returns have recently been below 61% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 75, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. UPM has only one below-average growth indicator, the stock returns. This is probably the least reliable growth indicator, because it measures company and investor expectations at the same time. The three other growth indicators, which are all positive for UPM, are more reliable measures of growth momentum. For this reason, the company seems to be on a good trajectory, unless you think the current period is not representative, because of unique events that will not be repeated in the future. ...read more
Safety Strategy: UPM Debt Financing Safety very solid
| SAFETY METRICS | March 13, 2025 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 64 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 45 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 84 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 82 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 82 (better than 82% compared with alternatives) for 2025, the company UPM has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of UPM is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for UPM. Leverage is at a rank of 64, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 64% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 84, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 84% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 45, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 55% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 82 (better than 82% compared with alternatives), UPM has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for UPM. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. ...read more
Combined financial peformance: UPM Top Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | March 13, 2025 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 41 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 75 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 84 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 80 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 80 (better than 80% compared with investment alternatives), UPM (Paper Products, Finland) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of UPM are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 41 (worse than 59% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 75) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 82, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 80, is a strong buy recommendation based on UPM's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company UPM exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 41), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 75). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 82) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). ...read more
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