August 1, 2024
Top 10 Stock Aurizon Sell Recommendation
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Snapshot: Aurizon – Top 10 Stock in Australian Securities Exchange Index ASX 100
Aurizon is listed as a top 10 stock on August 01, 2024 in the market index ASX 100 because of its high performance in at least one of the Obermatt investment strategies. Only one consolidated Obermatt Rank is above-average. The company enjoys a positive professional investor sentiment, but all financial facts speak against a stock purchase. This is probably an investment into the future. Based on the Obermatt 360° View of 18 (18% performer), Obermatt issues an overall sell recommendation for Aurizon on August 01, 2024.
Snapshot: Obermatt Ranks
When Obermatt identifies the Top 10 stocks in a market, it’s based on a certain investment strategy. The best performing stocks usually aren’t the ones that everyone is talking about (those are often "over-priced" and have low Value ranks).
For each investment strategy, we provide you with more detailed analysis and our recommendation. You see the ranks of the top 10 stocks ranked by that particular investment strategy (360° View, Sentiment, Value, Growth, Safety and Combined Financial Performance).
360° View: Obermatt 360° View Aurizon Sell
| 360 METRICS | August 1, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 39 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 27 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 19 |
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| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | 56 |
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| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | 18 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt 360° View of 18 (better than 18% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and financial characteristics for the stock Aurizon are critical, mostly below average. The 360° View is based on consolidating four consolidated indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Aurizon. The consolidated Sentiment Rank has a good rank of 56, which means that professional investors are more optimistic about the stock than for 56% of alternative investment opportunities. But all other ranks are below average. The consolidated Value Rank has a rank of 39, which means that the share price of Aurizon is on the higher side compared with typical size in indicators such as revenues, profits, and invested capital. The consolidated Growth Rank also has a low rank of 27, meaning that the company exhibits below-average growth momentum when looking at financial metrics such as revenue, profit, invested capital growth, and stock returns. This means that growth is lower than for 27% of competitors in the same industry. Finally, the consolidated Safety Rank has a riskier rank of 19 which means that the company has a riskier financing structure than 81% comparable companies when looking at the amount of its debt, its refinancing requirements, and its ability to service debt. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated 360° View of 18, Aurizon is worse than 82% of all alternative stock investment opportunities based on the Obermatt Method. This means that Aurizon shares are on the riskier side for investors. As only the professional market sentiment (Sentiment Rank of 56) is above-average, and all other consolidated Obermatt Ranks are below peers, the stock investing proposition case is rather weak. The stock price is expensive for a company of this size in this industry, visible in the below-average Value Rank. Growth is below the competition based on the Growth Rank, and the company has more debt than other companies, according to the Safety Rank. So the question becomes: How important is the Sentiment Rank when all others are below average? When it comes to growth, the low rating might be justified if growth is expected in the future and not yet reflected in current performance. This is often the case for companies with intellectual property, such as technology and pharmaceutical companies. In the early phases, these companies are expensive compared with their size and may have a lot of debt on their books, as is the case here, as seen in the low Value and Safety Ranks. Future growth may be the strongest investment rationale in this case, which is only reflected by institutional investors' opinions. You pay more than the market average for this stock and invest in a rather debt-loaded enterprise, but it may be worth it if the future of Aurizoṇ is bright. A small investment might be justified, but proceed with caution. ...read more
Sentiment Strategy: Professional Market Sentiment for Aurizon positive
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Sentiment Rank of 56 (better than 56% compared with alternatives), overall professional sentiment and engagement for the stock Aurizon is above average. The Sentiment Rank is based on consolidating four sentiment indicators, with half of the metrics below and half above average for Aurizon. Analyst Opinions are at a rank of 31 (worse than 69% of alternative investments), which means that currently, stock research analysts tend to warn against investing in the stock of the company. Worse, Analyst Opinions Change has a rank of 18, which means that stock research experts are getting even more pessimistic. Other sentiment indicators are positive: The Professional Investors rank is 83, which means that professional investors hold more stock in this company than in 83% of alternative investment opportunities. So, pros tend to favor investing in this company. In addition, Market Pulse has a rank of 73, which means that the current professional news and professional social networks tend to be positive when discussing this company (more positive news than for 73% of competitors). While stock research analysts are getting ever more critical, many professional investors are committed to Aurizon and the professional news channels are on the positive side. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Sentiment Rank of 56 (more positive than 56% compared with investment alternatives), Aurizon has a reputation among professional investors that is above-average compared with that of its competitors. This is an ambiguous picture: analysts are negative and getting even more critical, while the news in the market is positive. Who should investors believe? This is a difficult question in such a situation. Investors should proceed cautiously and verify not only the financial performance in the Obermatt Value, Growth and Safety Ranks but also independent news coverage of the company. ...read more
Value Strategy: Aurizon Stock Price Value below-average critical
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 39 (worse than 61% compared with alternatives), Aurizon shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Aurizon. Only the metric dividend yield has an above-average rank, reflecting that dividend practices are expected to be higher than 96% of comparable companies, making the stock an attractive buy for dividend investors. However, dividend investors may get disappointed because all other critical financial indicators are below the market median: Price-to-Sales is 29 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 71% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Aurizon's sales levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a rank of 49 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profit levels is higher than 51% of comparable companies. In addition, Price-to-Book (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 25 is also low. Compared with invested capital, the stock price is higher than for 75% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 39, is a hold recommendation based on Aurizon's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Should dividend investors pick Aurizon? The company-reported financials speak against it. The company is expensive compared with revenue and invested capital levels, two reliable company size indicators. In addition, it currently has a low level of profits. How can future dividends be paid in the case that profits remain low? Dividend investors should choose Aurizon only if they reasonably expect the low current profit levels to be transitory. ...read more
Growth Strategy: Aurizon Growth Momentum low
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 27 (better than 27% compared with alternatives), Aurizon shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Aurizon. Sales Growth has a rank of 52, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 52% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 51 is also above average. But Capital Growth has only a rank of 29, and Stock Returns with 47 are also below-average. Stock returns for Aurizon have recently been below 53% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 27, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Are investors forecasting troubles based on the lack of operating investment activity at the company? This could be one explanation as to why stock returns are low. But stock returns can also be the result of correcting an error in the past, in this case, an overly optimistic outlook on the future, which is now more realistic. The Value Ranks may confirm such a picture. The more important growth indicators are revenues and profits, which are both above average for Aurizon. This is a positive sign from the company's operational side and may give investors courage, despite the poor recent stock price performance. ...read more
Safety Strategy: Aurizon Debt Financing Safety risky
| SAFETY METRICS | August 1, 2024 | |||||||
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| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 26 |
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| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 21 |
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| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 40 |
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| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 19 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 19 (better than 19% compared with alternatives), the company Aurizon has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Aurizon is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Aurizon. Liquidity is at 40, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 60% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 26, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 74% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 21 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 79% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 19 (worse than 81% compared with alternatives), Aurizon has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing.
Combined financial peformance: Aurizon Lowest Financial Performance
| COMBINED PERFORMANCE | August 1, 2024 | |||||||
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| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 39 |
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| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 27 |
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| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 40 |
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| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 7 |
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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 7 (worse than 93% compared with investment alternatives), Aurizon (Railroads, Australia) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Aurizon are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 39 (worse than 61% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 27), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 19), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 7, is a sell recommendation based on Aurizon's financial characteristics. As the company Aurizon's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 39), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 27), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 19), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. ...read more
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